This article delves into the pro-cyclicality of loan loss provisions (LLPs) and earnings management, along with equity management, in Portuguese banks against the backdrop of implementing the IFRS 9’s expected credit loss (ECL) model. It concentrates on how LLPs mirror economic cycles and financial management practices, providing valuable insights into the operational dynamics of the Portuguese banking sector, marked by distinct economic and regulatory challenges. The research examined a sample of five Portuguese commercial banks, chosen from a group of seventeen in the Portuguese Banking Association. Data spanning from 2013 to 2022 were manually gathered. A multiple linear regression model was employed to scrutinize the relationship between LLPs and variables indicative of economic cycles and the earnings and equity management. The methodology use was a multiple linear regression model. The analysis indicates a pro-cyclicality in LLPs within the Portuguese context, with a positive response of LLPs to economic indicators like unemployment. Contrarily, the extent of earnings and equity management under the ECL model was less marked compared to the incurred credit loss (ICL) model, suggesting the impact of more stringent regulatory measures. The research corroborates the pro-cyclicality of LLPs in Portuguese banks under the ECL framework, underscoring the necessity for ongoing monitoring and refinement of models for forecasting and recognizing credit losses. The findings point to an area for improvement in financial management practices, despite regulatory enhancements, to promote transparency and ensure financial stability.

中文翻译：

---

预期信用损失模型对葡萄牙银行业顺周期性、盈余管理和股权管理的影响

本文深入研究了葡萄牙银行在实施 IFRS 9 预期信用损失 (ECL) 模型的背景下，贷款损失准备金 (LLP) 和盈余管理以及股权管理的顺周期性。它专注于有限责任合伙企业如何反映经济周期和财务管理实践，为葡萄牙银行业的运营动态提供宝贵的见解，该银行业面临着独特的经济和监管挑战。该研究调查了五家葡萄牙商业银行的样本，这些银行是从葡萄牙银行业协会的十七家银行中选出的。2013 年至 2022 年的数据是手动收集的。采用多元线性回归模型来仔细研究有限责任合伙企业与指示经济周期以及盈余和股权管理的变量之间的关系。使用的方法是多元线性回归模型。分析表明，在葡萄牙背景下，有限责任合伙企业具有顺周期性，有限责任合伙企业对失业等经济指标做出了积极反应。相反，与已发生信用损失（ICL）模型相比，ECL模型下的盈余和股权管理程度不那么明显，这表明更严格的监管措施的影响。该研究证实了ECL框架下葡萄牙银行有限责任合伙企业的顺周期性，强调了持续监测和完善预测和确认信用损失模型的必要性。调查结果指出，尽管监管有所加强，但财务管理实践仍有待改进，以提高透明度并确保金融稳定。