Development and validation of a risk prediction model for preterm birth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus,Clinical Endocrinology

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › Clin. Endocrinol. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for preterm birth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus
Clinical Endocrinology ( IF 3.2 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-11 , DOI: 10.1111/cen.15044
Hanbing Li ₁ , Lingling Gao ₂ , Xiao Yang ₂ , Lu Chen ₂

Affiliation

ObjectivesThis study aims to develop and validate a prediction model for preterm birth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).DesignWe conducted a retrospective study on women with GDM who gave birth at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat‐sen University, Guangzhou, China, between November 2017 and July 2021. We divided 1879 patients into a development set (n = 1346) and a validation set (n = 533). The development set was used to construct the prediction model for preterm birth using the stepwise logistic regression model. A nomogram and a web calculator were established based on the model. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both sets.Patients and MeasurementsPatients were women with GDM. Data were collected from medical records. GDM was diagnosed with 75‐g oral glucose tolerance test during 24‐28 gestational weeks. Preterm birth was definied as gestational age at birth <37 weeks.ResultsThe incidence of preterm birth was 9.4%. The predictive model included age, assisted reproductive technology, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, reproductive system inflammation, intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy, high‐density lipoprotein, homocysteine, and fasting blood glucose of 75‐g oral glucose tolerance test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.722 and 0.632, respectively. The model has been adequately calibrated using a calibration curve and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test, demonstrating a correlation between the predicted and observed risk.ConclusionThis study presents a novel, validated risk model for preterm birth in pregnant women with GDM, providing an individualized risk estimation using clinical risk factors in the third trimester of pregnancy.

更新日期：2024-03-11

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

阅读更多本刊最新论文本刊介绍/投稿指南

全部期刊列表>>