We propose a few testable hypotheses to examine the impact of demographic transition on inflation. We contribute to the existing literature by refining the formulation of hypotheses and treatment of slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence by implementing the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) procedure that adopts dynamic common correlated predictors. To this end, we consider two panels consisting of eight advanced economies (AEs) and sixteen emerging market economies (EMEs) to gain insights into the current asymmetric global demographic transition. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that the share of the working-age population is inflationary in AEs and disinflationary in EMEs. This analysis suggests that an asymmetry in demographic transition between AEs and EMEs influences inflation differently. Our findings offer clues to policymakers regarding the influence of the cohort size of the prime and young working-age population on inflation. Specifically, policymakers in emerging markets should incorporate information about the changing structure of demographic variables as the asymmetry in transition can lead to varying impacts on inflation compared to the impacts in advanced nations.

中文翻译：

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人口结构转变和通货膨胀

我们提出了一些可检验的假设来检验人口转变对通货膨胀的影响。我们通过实施采用动态公共相关预测变量的横截面增强自回归分布滞后（CS-ARDL）程序，改进了假设的表述以及斜率异质性和横截面依赖性的处理，为现有文献做出了贡献。为此，我们考虑由八个发达经济体 (AE) 和十六个新兴市场经济体 (EME) 组成的两个小组，以深入了解当前的不对称全球人口转型。我们的综合分析表明，劳动年龄人口所占的比例在新兴经济体中处于通货膨胀状态，在新兴市场经济体中处于通货紧缩状态。该分析表明，新兴经济体和新兴市场经济体之间人口转变的不对称对通货膨胀的影响不同。我们的研究结果为政策制定者提供了有关黄金和年轻劳动年龄人口群体规模对通胀影响的线索。具体而言，新兴市场的政策制定者应纳入有关人口变量结构变化的信息，因为与发达国家相比，转型的不对称性可能会导致对通胀的不同影响。