Many shocks, including COVID-19, wars, inflation, contractionary U.S. monetary policy, and oil price hikes, have recently buffeted the world economy. The literature has reported mixed results concerning how these shocks impact Malaysian stock returns. Some studies found that U.S. monetary policy mattered for Malaysia, while others reported that it did not. This paper, employing two U.S. monetary policy measures over the 2001–2019 period, finds that U.S. policy matters little for Malaysian equities. Some studies found that oil price hikes increased Malaysian stock returns while others reported that they did not. This paper, employing updated data, reports that oil price increases, driven by both world demand shocks and oil supply shocks, raise Malaysian stock returns. The paper also compares the performance of Malaysian equities since the pandemic began, with returns forecasted based on macroeconomic variables. The period since the pandemic started has been labeled the megacrisis era. Interconnected crises, including the pandemic, wars, rising commodity prices, and climate events, all overlapped. The results indicate that industrial metals and banks have performed well since the pandemic began. Food producers, healthcare providers, medical equipment suppliers, tourist-related companies, and semiconductor firms have suffered. This paper considers several steps that could help these sectors to recover.

中文翻译：

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马来西亚的宏观经济冲击和经济表现：部门分析

最近，包括 COVID-19、战争、通货膨胀、美国紧缩货币政策和油价上涨在内的许多冲击给世界经济带来了冲击。关于这些冲击如何影响马来西亚股市回报，文献报道的结果好坏参半。一些研究发现美国的货币政策对马来西亚很重要，而另一些研究则报告说事实并非如此。本文采用 2001 年至 2019 年期间的两项美国货币政策措施，发现美国政策对马来西亚股市影响不大。一些研究发现，油价上涨增加了马来西亚股票的回报，而另一些研究则报告说，石油价格上涨并没有增加。本文采用最新数据报告称，在世界需求冲击和石油供应冲击的推动下，油价上涨提高了马来西亚股市的回报。该文件还比较了自大流行开始以来马来西亚股市的表现，以及根据宏观经济变量预测的回报。自大流行开始以来的这段时期被称为“大危机时代”。相互关联的危机，包括流行病、战争、大宗商品价格上涨和气候事件，都相互重叠。结果表明，自疫情爆发以来，工业金属和银行表现良好。食品生产商、医疗保健提供商、医疗设备供应商、旅游相关公司和半导体公司都受到了影响。本文考虑了可以帮助这些行业复苏的几个步骤。