Starting with Tinbergen (1962, Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy, The Twentieth Century Fund), quantifying the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on international trade flows has always been among the most popular topics in the trade literature. Also not surprisingly, to estimate the effects of RTAs, most researchers and policy analysts have relied on the workhorse model of trade—the gravity equation. Over the past 60 years, there have been many important developments in the RTA literature, both in terms of better methods to quantify their effects, and in terms of more and higher quality data. The objective of this paper is to trace the evolution of the methods and data developments in the RTA literature, from Tinbergen's very first exploration until today, and to critically evaluate their significance for our ability to measure the impact of RTAs (and other policies) on international trade.

中文翻译：

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评估贸易协定的影响：60 年方法和数据的经验教训

从丁伯根开始（1962 年，塑造世界经济：对国际经济政策的建议，二十世纪基金），量化区域贸易协定（RTA）对国际贸易流动的影响一直是贸易文献中最受欢迎的话题之一。同样不足为奇的是，为了估计区域贸易协定的影响，大多数研究人员和政策分析师都依赖于贸易的主力模型——引力方程。在过去的 60 年里，RTA 文献取得了许多重要的发展，无论是在更好的量化其影响的方法方面，还是在更多、更高质量的数据方面。本文的目的是追踪 RTA 文献中方法和数据发展的演变，从 Tinbergen 的第一次探索到今天，并批判性地评估它们对于我们衡量 RTA（和其他政策）对经济的影响的能力的重要性。国际贸易。