Carbon emission reduction is an important means of achieving climate policy goals. However, the literature has neglected consideration of the carbon emission reduction mechanism from the perspective of technology risk spillovers in international trade. To explore this mechanism, this paper expands the classical linear model of foreign trade technology risk spillovers into a nonlinear spatial Durbin model. We construct a novel technology risk spillover index to forecast the magnitude of carbon emissions in agricultural trade across different regions. To validate our model, we consider the dual connotation of the spatial diffusion of disembodied technology communication (DTC) to map the relationships between different geographic and economic regions that are adjacent. The results suggest that disembodied technology risk spillover could promote carbon emission reductions. Specifically, technology risk spillovers from agricultural trade reduce agricultural carbon emissions by 0.79–1.16% in the local region. Disembodied technology risk spillovers also reduce agricultural carbon emissions by 2.85–11.57% in geographically adjacent regions and 4.9% in economically adjacent regions. Based on these conclusions, this paper proposes improving the closed and backward situation of rural areas in China’s central and western regions, promoting the transition toward the high end of the global agricultural industry chain and developing productive agricultural services and the rural cultural tourism industry to expand rural employment channels and stabilize farmers’ income.

碳减排是实现气候政策目标的重要手段。然而，文献忽略了从国际贸易技术风险溢出视角对碳减排机制的思考。为了探讨这一机制，本文将外贸技术风险溢出的经典线性模型扩展为非线性空间杜宾模型。我们构建了一个新颖的技术风险溢出指数来预测不同地区农产品贸易中的碳排放量。为了验证我们的模型，我们考虑无形技术通信（DTC）空间扩散的双重含义，以绘制相邻的不同地理和经济区域之间的关系。结果表明，无形技术风险溢出可以促进碳排放减少。具体而言，农业贸易的技术风险溢出使当地农业碳排放减少0.79%~1.16%。无形技术风险溢出还可以使地理相邻地区的农业碳排放量减少 2.85-11.57%，经济相邻地区的农业碳排放量减少 4.9%。基于这些结论，本文提出改善我国中西部地区农村封闭落后状况，推动向全球农业产业链高端转型，发展生产性农业服务业和乡村文化旅游产业，壮大农村文化旅游产业。拓宽农村就业渠道，稳定农民收入。