Oligopolistic competition in the banking sector and risk in the real economy are important characteristics of many economies. We build a model of monetary policy transmission that incorporates these characteristics which allows us to analyze the long-run consequences of variations in the degree of banking competition. We show theoretically that various equilibrium cases can occur, and that the effect of monetary policy varies greatly across equilibrium cases. We calibrate the model to the U.S. economy in 2016-2019 and find that monetary policy pass-through is incomplete under imperfect competition. Further, we show that a decrease in the policy rate during the calibration period would have increased expected welfare, but also bank default probability.

中文翻译：

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寡头银行、风险投资和货币政策

银行业的寡头竞争和实体经济的风险是许多经济体的重要特征。我们建立了一个包含这些特征的货币政策传导模型，使我们能够分析银行竞争程度变化的长期后果。我们从理论上证明，各种均衡情况都可能发生，并且货币政策的效果在不同均衡情况下差异很大。我们将模型与2016-2019年的美国经济进行校准，发现不完全竞争下货币政策传导是不完全的。此外，我们表明，校准期内政策利率的下降会增加预期福利，但也会增加银行违约概率。