Understanding the political feasibility of transition pathways is a key issue in energy transitions. Policy changes are a significant source of uncertainty in energy system optimisation modelling. Energy system models are nevertheless continuously being updated to reflect policy signals as realistically as possible. Using the concept of as a starting point, this cross-disciplinary study combines energy system optimization modelling with political feasibility of different transition pathways. This combination generates insights into key political decision points in the ongoing energy transition. Resting on actor support structure and political feasibility of four main pathway categories (electrification, hydrogen, biomass, and energy efficiency), we identify critical model assumptions that are politically significant and impact model outcome. Then, by replacing the critical assumptions with technical limitations we model a scenario that is unrestrained by assumptions about policy, we identify areas where political choices are key to model outcomes. The combination of actor preferences and modelled energy system consequences enables the identification of future key decision points. We find that there is considerable support for electrification as the main pathway to net-zero. The implications of widespread electrification, in terms of energy production and grid capacity, lead us to identify challenging policy decisions with implications for the energy transition.

中文翻译：

---

识别和分析重要的模型假设：结合挪威深度脱碳路径的技术经济和政治可行性

了解转型路径的政治可行性是能源转型的关键问题。政策变化是能源系统优化建模中不确定性的重要来源。尽管如此，能源系统模型仍在不断更新，以尽可能真实地反映政策信号。这项跨学科研究以概念为起点，将能源系统优化模型与不同转型路径的政治可行性相结合。这种结合可以深入了解当前能源转型中的关键政治决策点。根据四个主要途径类别（电气化、氢能、生物质能和能源效率）的参与者支持结构和政治可行性，我们确定了具有政治意义并影响模型结果的关键模型假设。然后，通过用技术限制替换关键假设，我们模拟了一个不受政策假设限制的场景，我们确定了政治选择对于模拟结果至关重要的领域。参与者偏好和建模能源系统后果的结合能够识别未来的关键决策点。我们发现，人们大力支持电气化作为实现净零排放的主要途径。广泛电气化对能源生产和电网容量的影响，使我们认识到对能源转型具有挑战性的政策决策。