We examine the employment implications of a domestic net-zero transition and establishment of clean energy export systems for an historically significant energy exporting country, through a case study of Australia. The labour impacts of a multi-decadal transition are simulated across both the domestic and export energy systems, considering a wide range of energy technologies, resources and activities, with assessment according to occupation, lifecycle stage, education and skill requirements. Across all net-zero scenario pathways, by mid-century, the total gross employment created for the domestic and export sectors comprises 210–490 thousand jobs and 350–510 thousand jobs, respectively. This represents a significant expansion of energy sector employment from the current total of 120 thousand across domestic and export sectors, an increase from less than 1 % of the total Australian workforce in 2020 to 3–4 % by 2060. The need to build out energy system infrastructure at large-scale over a number of decades results in construction jobs continuing over that timeframe and a subsequent need for a large ongoing operations and maintenance workforce for new energy system assets. Those employed in domestic energy markets work primarily in utility solar PV, onshore wind, batteries and electricity transmission and distribution activities, while export market jobs are dominated by clean hydrogen production and shipping supply chains. Crucially, these export jobs are unevenly distributed across the country, in regions of highest quality solar resource. All states and territories experience net job growth across each decade to 2060. However, in a few sub-state regions, net job losses occur in the short-term.

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚净零转型和清洁能源出口对劳动力的影响

我们通过澳大利亚的案例研究，研究了国内净零转型和建立清洁能源出口体系对历史上重要的能源出口国的就业影响。在国内和出口能源系统中模拟了数十年转型对劳动力的影响，考虑了广泛的能源技术、资源和活动，并根据职业、生命周期阶段、教育和技能要求进行了评估。在所有净零情景路径中，到本世纪中叶，国内和出口部门创造的总就业岗位总数分别包括 210-49 万个工作岗位和 350-51 万个工作岗位。这意味着能源行业的就业人数从目前国内和出口行业的 12 万人大幅增加，从 2020 年占澳大利亚劳动力总数的不到 1% 增加到 2060 年的 3-4%。几十年来大规模的系统基础设施导致建设工作在该时间范围内持续进行，随后需要大量持续运营和维护新能源系统资产的劳动力。国内能源市场就业人员主要从事公用事业太阳能光伏、陆上风电、电池和电力传输和分配活动，而出口市场就业岗位主要以清洁氢生产和运输供应链为主。至关重要的是，这些出口工作在全国太阳能资源质量最高的地区分布不均。到 2060 年，所有州和领地每十年都会出现就业净增长。然而，在一些次州地区，短期内会出现就业净流失。