Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to use the residual strength theory to study the probability of a domino effect accident occurring following the explosion of a spherical tank. We build a novel domino effect accident probability model, using Monte Carlo methods to simulate the ejection of debris. At the same time, the velocity and velocity distribution of fragments ejecting from the upper and lower parts of the explosive spherical tank are obtained. Finally, the relationship between the volume of the exploding spherical tank and the target, the crater Angle (ψ₀ and ϕ₀) of debris impacting the target, the probability of target destruction and the risk of domino effect accidents are considered. The results show that the maximum speed of debris from the lower part of a spherical tank exceeds that from its upper part, and the hazard associated with the debris from the lower part cannot be ignored. With the same target volume and spacing, the probability of a domino effect accident caused by projectile debris from the upper half of an exploding spherical tank is higher than that from the lower half. As theψ₀ value increases, the probability of target failure gradually decreases, and as the ϕ₀ value decreases, the probability of target failure also gradually decreases. Moreover, with changes in ψ₀ and ϕ₀, the probabilities of destruction and the occurrence of a domino effect accident significantly change. The results of this paper can provide guidance for the risk assessment of oil and gas storage tanks.

中文翻译：

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基于新失效模型的球罐多米诺概率研究

摘要

本文的主要目的是利用剩余强度理论来研究球罐爆炸后发生多米诺骨牌效应事故的概率。我们建立了一种新颖的多米诺骨牌效应事故概率模型，使用蒙特卡罗方法来模拟碎片的喷射。同时获得爆炸球罐上部和下部喷出破片的速度和速度分布。最后，考虑爆炸球罐体积与目标的关系、碎片撞击目标的弹坑角（ψ ₀和ψ ₀）、目标毁坏的概率以及多米诺骨牌效应事故的风险。结果表明，球罐下部碎片的最大速度超过球罐上部碎片的最大速度，下部碎片带来的危害不容忽视。在相同目标体积和间距的情况下，球罐爆炸时上半部弹丸碎片引发多米诺骨牌效应事故的概率高于下半部弹丸碎片。随着ψ ₀值的增大，目标失效的概率逐渐减小，随着ψ ₀值的减小，目标失效的概率也逐渐减小。而且，随着ψ ₀和ψ ₀的变化，破坏和发生多米诺骨牌效应事故的概率显着变化。本文研究结果可为油气储罐风险评估提供指导。