The behavior of informed traders, or “smart money,” in sports betting markets has long been of interest to researchers. In this paper, we focus specifically on the behavior of smart money in Major League Baseball (MLB) daily fantasy sports (DFS) contests to determine whether they avoid cognitive-behavioral biases to increase their expected earnings. Specifically, we investigate whether smart money avoids the hot hand bias, where individuals tend to overestimate the likelihood of success for players on a hot streak. Using a dataset of MLB DFS contests, we find that winning lineups have lower usage rates for players exhibiting the hot hand compared to losing lineups. This suggests that smart money identifies and fades the hot hand strategy to increase their expected earnings.

中文翻译：

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聪明的钱相信热手吗？来自《每日幻想棒球》的证据

长期以来，研究人员一直对体育博彩市场中知情交易者或“聪明资金”的行为感兴趣。在本文中，我们特别关注美国职业棒球大联盟 (MLB) 每日梦幻体育 (DFS) 比赛中聪明资金的行为，以确定他们是否避免认知行为偏差以增加预期收入。具体来说，我们调查了聪明的资金是否避免了热手偏差，即个人往往高估连续热手的玩家成功的可能性。使用 MLB DFS 比赛的数据集，我们发现与失败的阵容相比，获胜阵容的球员表现出热手的使用率较低。这表明聪明的资金会识别并消除热手策略以增加其预期收益。