Abstract

This study explores the resilience and damage dynamics of agroforests, a critically important yet understudied agroecological system, in the aftermath of Category-5 Cyclone Winston in Fiji. As agroforestry gains prominence globally as a versatile production system able to support agrobiodiversity and food security for climate resilience, understanding the characteristics that contribute to its resistance and resilience to disturbance becomes increasingly important. Here we examine the effects of individual and species-specific traits, and management (planted and fallow vs forest areas) on the probability of tree stem survival and damage, and discuss the resistant and resilient qualities of trees and management actions in these systems. We found that the probability of post-cyclone survival increased as a function of wood density, irrespective of management type. Damage severity increased with tree size (diameter at breast height). Some of the species with the highest wood density were native trees, emphasizing the role of native species in agroforests, and the value of agroforests to conservation. Overall, agroforest trees experienced relatively low stem mortality (12.2%), suggesting that these agroforests may resist extreme disturbances despite their potential vulnerabilities such as landscape edge effects and altered species compositions. Our study provides insight into the potential of agroforests as resilient agroecological systems capable of withstanding escalating cyclone intensities, and the role of effective management strategies for fostering resilience amid a rapidly changing climate.

中文翻译：

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斐济重大气旋干扰后农林树木受损和存活的预测因素

摘要

本研究探讨了农林在斐济遭受 5 级气旋温斯顿袭击后的恢复力和破坏动态，农林是一个至关重要但尚未得到充分研究的农业生态系统。随着农林业作为一种能够支持农业生物多样性和粮食安全以增强气候适应能力的多功能生产系统在全球范围内日益受到重视，了解有助于其抵抗干扰和恢复能力的特征变得越来越重要。在这里，我们研究了个体和物种特定性状以及管理（种植和休耕与森林面积）对树干存活和损坏概率的影响，并讨论了树木的抵抗力和恢复力品质以及这些系统中的管理行动。我们发现，无论管理类型如何，飓风后生存的概率随着木材密度的增加而增加。损害严重程度随着树木大小（胸径）的增加而增加。一些木材密度最高的树种是本土树木，强调了本土树种在农林中的作用以及农林的保护价值。总体而言，农林树的茎死亡率相对较低（12.2％），这表明这些农林树可以抵抗极端干扰，尽管它们具有潜在的脆弱性，例如景观边缘效应和物种组成改变。我们的研究深入了解农林作为能够承受不断升级的气旋强度的弹性农业生态系统的潜力，以及有效管理策略在快速变化的气候中增强复原力的作用。