In this study, a methodology combining some state-of-the-art methods for the analysis of groundwater monitoring networks is proposed to test the hypothesis that it can be successfully used to assess trends in groundwater levels and their origin with minimal hydrogeological data requirements. The methodology first employs trend detection methods, namely the trend-free prewhitening Mann–Kendall test and a bootstrap test, to explore trends; then it uses the reference hydrograph method, land-use change maps, and consultation with groundwater resource managers to understand the origin of the trends. The methodology was tested on the groundwater monitoring network of the province of Quebec, Canada. This study focuses on short-term trends, given the length of the data available. The results showed that all but one of the observation wells in the monitoring network exhibited significant upward (38%) and downward (62%) trends at the 5% statistical significance level, but that the majority of observation wells (77%) exhibited a trend amplitude of less than 3 cm/year in absolute value, the threshold below which the rate of upward or downward change is considered stable. Application of the bootstrap test validated the representativeness of the trends calculated at well scale. For 33% of the observation wells with moderate to large trends (amplitude greater than or equal to 3 cm/year in absolute value), changes in the field around the wells were identified and could explain the observed trends for half of them. For the remaining 67% of wells, no changes in the field were reported.

在本研究中，提出了一种结合了一些最先进的地下水监测网络分析方法的方法，以检验这样的假设：该方法可以成功地用于评估地下水位趋势及其来源，并且需要最少的水文地质数据。该方法首先采用趋势检测方法，即无趋势预白化Mann-Kendall测试和bootstrap测试来探索趋势；然后，它使用参考水位线方法、土地利用变化图以及与地下水资源管理者的协商来了解趋势的起源。该方法在加拿大魁北克省的地下水监测网络上进行了测试。鉴于可用数据的长度，本研究侧重于短期趋势。结果显示，监测网络中除1口观测井外，其余观测井均在5%统计显着性水平上表现出显着的上升（38%）和下降（62%）趋势，但大多数观测井（77%）表现出显着的上升趋势（38%）和下降趋势（62%）。趋势幅度的绝对值小于 3 厘米/年，低于该阈值，向上或向下变化的速率被认为是稳定的。引导测试的应用验证了井规模计算趋势的代表性。对于 33% 具有中到大趋势（幅度绝对值大于或等于 3 厘米/年）的观测井，识别出井周围磁场的变化，并且可以解释其中一半观测到的趋势。其余 67% 的井没有报告油田发生变化。