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Fortnightly Standardized Precipitation Index trend analysis for drought characterization in India
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-14 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-04905-x
Besty Benny , Degavath Vinod , Amai Mahesha

Climate change is a major concern, as it profoundly affects many facets of our lives. It has brought about several issues, including declining water supply, reduced agricultural yields, increased drought occurrences, and increased heat waves. Amidst these challenges, the influence of short-term drought events on plant growth and irrigation schedule emerges as a critical concern. However, despite these evident consequences, a nuanced understanding of the intricate relationship between the severity and duration of short-period drought/deficit events still needs to be explored. This paper analyses fortnightly water deficit periods over different regions of India, which would be more relevant to re-scheduling the irrigation events than monthly or longer duration in preventing crops from reaching the permanent wilting point. Hence, this work considers analyzing 15-day Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) trends and drought characteristics using conventional methods and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) techniques. The analysis uses gridded rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which has a spatial resolution of 0.250-E and 0.250-N. The data spans the period from 1970 to 2021. The ITA and Mann Kendall (MK) displayed nearly identical areas of increasing and decreasing trends, but ITA effectively identified significant trends. While MK and Modified Mann Kendall (MMK) could only indicate significant trends for 12.94%, 9.57%, and 9.9% of grid points for SPI, drought severity, and duration, respectively, ITA was able to identify significant trends at 44.31%, 10.9%, and 10.1% on an annual scale. The ITA method effectively identified the significant trends and magnitudes of fortnightly SPI and drought characteristics. The Tropical monsoon (Am), Tropical savannah (Aw), Arid desert hot (BWh), Arid steppe hot (BSh), and Temperate dry winter warm summer (Cwb) climatic zones have shown a significant increase in annual drought severity. Similarly, a significant increase in monsoon drought severity is observed across several states, including Gujarat and Mizoram, impacting diverse geographic extents. The present study can help policymakers and water resource managers decide on water allocation, irrigation, and crop management practices.



中文翻译:

印度干旱特征的每两周标准化降水指数趋势分析

气候变化是一个重大问题,因为它深刻影响着我们生活的许多方面。它带来了一些问题,包括供水减少、农业产量下降、干旱发生率增加和热浪增加。在这些挑战中,短期干旱事件对植物生长和灌溉计划的影响成为一个重要问题。然而,尽管存在这些明显的后果,但仍需要探索对短期干旱/赤字事件的严重程度和持续时间之间复杂关系的细致入微的理解。本文分析了印度不同地区每两周的缺水期,这对于重新安排灌溉活动比每月或更长时间的缺水期更能防止农作物达到永久枯萎点。因此,本工作考虑使用传统方法和创新趋势分析(ITA)技术来分析 15 天标准化降水指数(SPI)趋势和干旱特征。该分析使用印度气象局 (IMD) 的网格降雨数据,其空间分辨率为 0.25 0 -E 和 0.25 0 -N。数据跨越 1970 年至 2021 年。ITA 和 Mann Kendall (MK) 显示了几乎相同的增长和下降趋势区域,但 ITA 有效地识别了重要趋势。虽然 MK 和改良曼肯德尔 (MMK) 只能分别指示 SPI、干旱严重程度和持续时间网格点 12.94%、9.57% 和 9.9% 的显着趋势,但 ITA 能够识别 44.31%、10.9% 的显着趋势。 %,年增长率为 10.1%。ITA方法有效地识别了每两周SPI和干旱特征的显着趋势和幅度。热带季风(Am)、热带草原(Aw)、干旱沙漠炎热(BWh)、干旱草原炎热(BSh)和温带干冬暖夏(Cwb)气候区年干旱严重程度显着增加。同样,包括古吉拉特邦和米佐拉姆邦在内的几个邦的季风干旱严重程度显着增加,影响了不同的地理范围。本研究可以帮助政策制定者和水资源管理者决定水分配、灌溉和作物管理实践。

更新日期:2024-03-15
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