Abstract

This study proposed a spatially explicit non-linear function for estimating the benefits following the release and establishment of the koinobiont endoparasitoid, Fopius arisanus at a landscape scale in Kenya to control the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis. The proposed model relates the bioecology of the parasitoid to its impacts on fruit growers’ economic benefits per fruit farm. In addition, we used financial information attributed to the cost of importation, conducting associated research, and the release of F. arisanus to estimate the return on investment from the parasitoid’s release in Kenya. We observed distinct variations in potential annual benefits across the diverse mango cultivation regions throughout Kenya. In Kenya, the potential benefits range from negligible benefit to high benefit per acre (US$201- US$255) annually when classical biological control is applied. Furthermore, the cost-benefit ratio analysis showed that in Kenya, for every US$1 invested, the return benefit was US$33.92. In addition in Kenya, the investment yielded a significant net present value of US$13.7 million over a 16-year period and an attractive internal rate of return of 73% compared to the reference discount rate of 12%. The study suggests the need to facilitate further release of the parasitoid (F. arisanus) across major fruit production regions of countries affected by the invasive fruit fly (B. dorsalis).

中文翻译：

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评估肯尼亚 Fopius arisanus 对入侵果蝇 Bactrocera dorsalis 进行经典生物防治的潜在经济效益

摘要

本研究提出了一个空间明确的非线性函数，用于估计在肯尼亚景观尺度上释放和建立相鱼生物体内寄生生物Fopius arisanus来控制东方果蝇（Bactrocera dorsalis）的效益。所提出的模型将寄生蜂的生物生态学与其对果农每个果园经济效益的影响联系起来。此外，我们还利用进口成本、开展相关研究以及F. arisanus的释放所产生的财务信息来估计肯尼亚寄生蜂释放的投资回报。我们观察到肯尼亚不同芒果种植区的潜在年度效益存在明显差异。在肯尼亚，当应用经典生物防治时，每年每英亩的潜在效益从微不足道的效益到高效益（201 美元至 255 美元）不等。此外，成本效益比分析显示，在肯尼亚，每投资1美元，回报收益为33.92美元。此外，在肯尼亚，该投资在 16 年期间产生了高达 1,370 万美元的净现值，与 12% 的参考贴现率相比，内部回报率为 73%，颇具吸引力。该研究表明，需要促进在受入侵果蝇（B. dorsalis）影响的国家的主要水果产区进一步释放寄生蜂（F. arisanus）。