occurs as a contaminant of various foods and animal feeds and can produce the mycotoxin aflatoxin B that is a danger to human and animal health. Here, we develop models to predict the behaviour of in maize extract agar and maize grains. Growth and aflatoxin B production were recorded on maize extract agar at 20–35 °C and water activities from 0.84 to 0.90. We then obtained probability models—using temperature, water activity, and time as explanatory variables—based on data of growth and aflatoxin B production. Additional data were generated under two dynamically changing temperature regimes. Initial water activity, and relative humidity during incubation, were recorded. Predicted probability of growth under dynamic conditions based on models built under static conditions depended on the temperature regime and substrate, concordance ranging from 66 to 100%, with lower concordances obtained for aflatoxin B production prediction. Interestingly, aflatoxin B production was higher on maize grains than on maize extract agar. Moreover, this work suggests that the safe water activity for a cereal may depend on the previous water activity and temperatures which may have allowed fungal growth and so trigger later toxin production under water stress.

中文翻译：

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黄曲霉毒素 B1 的产生：时间-水分活度-温度模型

作为各种食品和动物饲料的污染物，可产生霉菌毒素黄曲霉毒素 B，对人类和动物健康构成威胁。在这里，我们开发了模型来预测玉米提取物琼脂和玉米粒的行为。在 20–35 °C 和水分活度从 0.84 到 0.90 的条件下记录玉米提取物琼脂上的生长和黄曲霉毒素 B 产量。然后，我们根据生长和黄曲霉毒素 B 产生的数据，使用温度、水分活度和时间作为解释变量，获得了概率模型。附加数据是在两个动态变化的温度条件下生成的。记录初始水分活度和孵化期间的相对湿度。基于静态条件下建立的模型预测动态条件下的生长概率取决于温度状况和底物，一致性范围为 66% 至 100%，黄曲霉毒素 B 产量预测获得的一致性较低。有趣的是，玉米粒中黄曲霉毒素 B 的产生量高于玉米提取物琼脂上的黄曲霉毒素 B 产生量。此外，这项工作表明，谷物的安全水分活度可能取决于之前的水分活度和温度，这可能允许真菌生长，从而在水分胁迫下引发后来的毒素产生。