Our goal is to provide econometric tools that could act as an almost real-time -system for central banks working under an . In any given month, it computes the probability that inflation will remain within the tolerance bounds set in advance by the . So, our short-term index gives a proper response time for Central Banks, something long-term indices prevalent in the literature do not provide. Although we showcase Brazil in our application, our method could be broadly applied to other countries that operate under an . Our key statistic is the probability that inflation will be within the bounds in the next 1- 3- and 6-months ahead. It is based on predictive densities obtained from a mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive (MAR) model. We polish the accuracy of our key statistic using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve), something new in this literature.

中文翻译：

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通货膨胀目标制下央行的短期信誉指数：在巴西的应用

我们的目标是提供计量经济学工具，这些工具可以充当中央银行在 .在任何给定月份，它都会计算通货膨胀保持在预先设定的容忍范围内的概率。因此，我们的短期指数为央行提供了适当的响应时间，这是文献中普遍存在的长期指数所没有提供的。尽管我们在应用程序中展示了巴西，但我们的方法可以广泛应用于在 .我们的关键统计数据是未来 1-3 个月和 6 个月内通胀在一定范围内的可能性。它基于从混合因果-非因果自回归 (MAR) 模型获得的预测密度。我们使用受试者工作特征曲线（ROC 曲线）来提高关键统计数据的准确性，这是本文献中的新内容。