This paper analyses the impact of enrollment in the recently launched contributory pension scheme, Atal Pension Yojana (APY), on formal retirement savings using a unit-level sample of households from an extensive, nationally representative survey for India. We address the endogeneity in the enrollment in APY using a novel semiparametric copula regression methodology. This methodology allows us to address and control for endogeneity due to observed and unobserved confounding, nonlinear covariate effects, and non-Gaussian distributions. Our results indicate that APY positively impacts formal retirement savings. APY crowd-in other forms of formal retirement savings. Our results suggest that marginalized populations, especially the Scheduled Tribe, are more likely to enroll in APY, and digital financial technologies can bring greater financial inclusion in India. The findings have significant policy implications on how households allocate their retirement savings and help us understand the role of APY in bringing additional savings.

本文使用印度一项广泛的、具有全国代表性的调查中的单位级家庭样本，分析了最近推出的缴费型养老金计划 Atal Pension Yojana (APY) 的注册对正式退休储蓄的影响。我们使用一种新颖的半参数联结回归方法来解决 APY 入学的内生性问题。这种方法使我们能够解决和控制由于观察到和未观察到的混杂因素、非线性协变量效应和非高斯分布而导致的内生性。我们的结果表明 APY 对正式退休储蓄产生积极影响。APY 挤占了其他形式的正式退休储蓄。我们的结果表明，边缘化人群，尤其是在册部落，更有可能参加 APY，而数字金融技术可以为印度带来更大的金融包容性。研究结果对于家庭如何分配退休储蓄具有重要的政策意义，并帮助我们了解 APY 在带来额外储蓄方面的作用。