Using data from the mid-1990s to the present, we assessed correlations of Ruffed Grouse (Bonasa umbellus) hunter cooperator reports from seven states to Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Count, and eBird data to determine which program’s trends best reflected patterns seen in hunter-sourced data that has historically been used for monitoring purposes. Christmas Bird Count data most closely reflected state-wide long-term trends in cooperator flush rates. Using an analytical approach that accounts for sources of bias and examines abundance at a finer spatial scale, we observed a pattern of decline across our study area. In recent decades, Ruffed Grouse populations in the eastern United States are thought to have suffered persistent declines due to a combination of young forest habitat loss and West Nile virus mortality. Declining hunter participation in much of the species’ range has highlighted the need to identify harvest-independent indices of grouse abundance to enable continued monitoring of regional long-term trends. Recent analytical methods can better capture complex trends in population dynamics, account for biases inherent to community-sourced data, and potentially inform designs of future survey efforts aimed at fulfilling priority monitoring and research needs. Comparable results across varying statistical methodologies suggest that our inferences are robust, demonstrating that Christmas Bird Count data can be used to inform regional monitoring efforts for grouse and other cryptic game bird populations, but require careful consideration of program designs and protocols to identify and implement data appropriately.

中文翻译：

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圣诞鸟类计数数据是美国东部松鸡监测的可靠的独立于收获的指数

使用 20 世纪 90 年代中期至今的数据，我们评估了七个州的颈松鸡 (Bonasa umbellus) 狩猎合作者报告与鸟类繁殖调查、圣诞节鸟类计数和 eBird 数据的相关性，以确定哪个计划的趋势最能反映猎人中观察到的模式- 历史上曾用于监控目的的来源数据。圣诞节鸟类计数数据最接近地反映了全州范围内合作者冲水率的长期趋势。使用一种分析方法来解释偏差来源并在更精细的空间尺度上检查丰度，我们观察到整个研究区域的下降模式。近几十年来，由于幼林栖息地丧失和西尼罗河病毒死亡率的共同作用，美国东部的颈松鸡数量持续下降。在该物种的大部分范围内，猎人参与度的下降凸显了确定与收获无关的松鸡丰度指数的必要性，以便能够持续监测区域长期趋势。最近的分析方法可以更好地捕捉人口动态的复杂趋势，解释社区来源数据固有的偏差，并有可能为旨在满足优先监测和研究需求的未来调查工作的设计提供信息。不同统计方法的可比结果表明，我们的推论是可靠的，表明圣诞节鸟类计数数据可用于为松鸡和其他神秘鸟类种群的区域监测工作提供信息，但需要仔细考虑程序设计和协议来识别和实施数据适当地。