A theoretical foundation for predicting the distribution of trade strength and the rate of change of trade strength was developed. These two quantities were found to satisfy the Pareto distribution function. The equations were confirmed using data from the World Integrated Trade Solution and the World Bank by comparing the Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion to five types of distribution functions (exponential, lognormal, gamma, Pareto, and Weibull). Furthermore, the fitted Pareto power parameter is quite similar to the theoretical prediction. The developed distribution function is expected to be useful in forecasting international trade in countries and global economics, enabling the implementation of optimal policies.

建立了预测贸易强度分布和贸易强度变化率的理论基础。发现这两个量满足帕累托分布函数。使用世界综合贸易解决方案和世界银行的数据，通过将赤池信息准则和贝叶斯信息准则与五种分布函数（指数、对数正态、伽玛、帕累托和威布尔）进行比较，确认了方程。此外，拟合的帕累托幂参数与理论预测非常相似。开发的分配函数预计将有助于预测各国的国际贸易和全球经济，从而实现最优政策。