While several nuclear energy newcomer (NEN) countries have shown interest in small modular reactors (SMRs) as a potential energy source, this interest can generate new uncertainties regarding future nuclear weapons proliferation risks. Therefore, this research seeks to determine whether future SMR deployment in NEN countries will contribute to nuclear weapons proliferation, and how the risks can be mitigated. This research uses the Bayesian network statistical approach in conjunction with surveys of experts to assess nuclear proliferation risks when NEN countries deploy SMRs or a large commercial nuclear reactor. The results indicate that an NEN with a strong commitment to the nuclear non-proliferation norms and a stable security environment will experience a lower probability of having higher proliferation risks relative to the United Arab Emirates. Specifically, we demonstrate that experts anticipate a minimal escalation in proliferation risks across different SMR types. Instead, the results show that enrichment or reprocessing (E&R) facilities, if associated with an SMR, exert a substantial influence on proliferation risks. Lastly, implementing a spent nuclear fuel (SNF) retrieval system could serve as an option to mitigate proliferation risks in an NEN country. These findings offer insights for leading nuclear supplier countries to alleviate the potential proliferation risks by NEN countries.

中文翻译：

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评估核能新兴国家的核武器扩散风险：以小型模块化反应堆为例

虽然一些核能新兴国家（NEN）对小型模块化反应堆（SMR）作为潜在能源表现出了兴趣，但这种兴趣可能会给未来核武器扩散风险带来新的不确定性。因此，本研究旨在确定未来在 NEN 国家部署 SMR 是否会导致核武器扩散，以及如何减轻风险。这项研究利用贝叶斯网络统计方法结合专家调查来评估 NEN 国家部署中小型反应堆或大型商用核反应堆时的核扩散风险。结果表明，与阿联酋相比，坚定致力于核不扩散规范和稳定安全环境的国家核出现较高扩散风险的可能性较低。具体来说，我们证明专家预计不同类型 SMR 的扩散风险升级程度会最小化。相反，结果表明，浓缩或后处理 (E&R) 设施如果与 SMR 相关，会对扩散风险产生重大影响。最后，实施乏核燃料（SNF）检索系统可以作为减轻 NEN 国家扩散风险的一种选择。这些发现为主要核供应国减轻 NEN 国家潜在的扩散风险提供了见解。