This study strives to examine when and where most of the gold smuggling takes place in India. It further analyses the causal relationship between smuggled gold and other macroeconomic variables. Finally, it analyses how the smuggled gold affects the Indian bullion industry. The data related to gold smuggling has been sourced from the website of the Directorate Revenue Intelligence and analysed using graphs and the Granger causality test. The variables used in the study are the quantity of smuggled gold, exchange rates, the major stock indices in the world, the number of auspicious days in a month, domestic and international gold prices, India’s jewellery export, the GDP, customs duty, and the domestic gold supply. The results revealed that most of the gold smuggling takes place on Fridays and mostly occurs in the months of October, November, and December. The states of West Bengal, Delhi, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu account for most of the gold smuggling in India. A positive correlation is observed between the smuggled gold, India’s gold demand, the number of auspicious days in the month, India’s jewellery export, India’s GDP, India’s domestic gold supply, and stock indices such as SENSEX, FTSE100, DFMGI. Gold smuggling in India is caused by India’s gold demand, the level of jewellery export, the GDP, domestic and international gold prices, and India’s customs duty.

中文翻译：

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印度的黄金走私及其对黄金行业的影响

这项研究致力于调查印度大部分黄金走私发生的时间和地点。进一步分析了走私黄金与其他宏观经济变量之间的因果关系。最后分析了走私黄金对印度金银业的影响。与黄金走私相关的数据来自税务情报局网站，并使用图表和格兰杰因果关系检验进行分析。研究中使用的变量有走私黄金数量、汇率、世界主要股票指数、每月吉日数、国内外黄金价格、印度珠宝出口、GDP、关税和国内黄金供应。结果显示，大部分黄金走私发生在周五，且主要发生在10月、11月和12月。西孟加拉邦、德里、马哈拉施特拉邦和泰米尔纳德邦占印度黄金走私的大部分。走私黄金与印度黄金需求、每月吉日数、印度珠宝出口、印度GDP、印度国内黄金供应量以及SENSEX、FTSE100、DFMGI等股票指数之间存在正相关关系。印度的黄金走私是由印度的黄金需求、珠宝出口水平、GDP、国内外金价以及印度关税等因素造成的。