Consumer sentiment is considered an important indicator of changes in household spending. However, the evidence of the causal relationship between sentiment and consumption is mixed and scarce. We address this gap using data from the monthly Florida Consumer Attitude Survey, which captures party affiliation, consumer sentiment, and spending intentions since 1991. We employ political partisanship as an instrument for sentiment and find a significant effect of sentiment on spending intentions. Finally, we provide evidence that spending intentions relate to actual spending and show that spending increased among counties with a larger share of Republican voters following the 2016 presidential election.

中文翻译：

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情绪和消费意图：来自佛罗里达州的证据

消费者信心被认为是家庭支出变化的重要指标。然而，情绪与消费之间因果关系的证据却是混杂且稀缺。我们使用来自佛罗里达州消费者态度月度调查的数据来解决这一差距，该调查记录了自 1991 年以来的党派归属、消费者情绪和支出意向。我们利用政治党派之争作为情绪工具，发现情绪对支出意向有显着影响。最后，我们提供证据表明支出意向与实际支出相关，并表明 2016 年总统大选后共和党选民比例较高的县的支出有所增加。