Using energy system modeling tools has successfully contributed to energy planning for mid-century energy sector decarbonization goals at different levels, such as national, regional, and global scenarios. In this way, these tools provide scientific evidence to define long-term strategies per the objectives set, such as energy self-sufficiency, energy transition, and decarbonization, which includes each sector's actions. Hydrocarbons are one of the most studied sectors due to their relevance in the energy sector. However, more work needs to be reported on analyzing the implications of these actions and exploring what the role of this sector may be in the strategy of the country or region. This study models a conceptual company's oil and gas value chain at a country level, exploring its role in the long-term vision of Colombian energy strategy. We developed a TIMES-O&G model, tested on three scenarios based on Colombia's National Energy Plan. In the short and medium term, the possibility of adding new resources could indicate how quickly the Colombian hydrocarbon market will lose its self-sufficiency since by 2030 and 2040, imports of natural gas and crude oil will exceed national production, respectively, leading O&G company in Colombia would lose its role as a producer of hydrocarbons, and from 2040, its value chain would be limited to being an importer of raw materials for refining to meet the national fuel demand; the preceding would imply an increase in costs of 15 and 18% of the system for the upgrading and inflection scenarios concerning the base case scenario. Moreover, the refineries are identified as the primary sector that must be decarbonized in the short and long term, considering their importance in the value chain they represent.

中文翻译：

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哥伦比亚国家碳氢化合物价值链长期能源规划情景评估：TIMES-O&G 模型的见解

使用能源系统建模工具成功地为不同级别（例如国家、区域和全球情景）的本世纪中叶能源部门脱碳目标的能源规划做出了贡献。通过这种方式，这些工具提供了科学证据来根据既定目标制定长期战略，例如能源自给自足、能源转型和脱碳，其中包括每个部门的行动。由于碳氢化合物与能源领域的相关性，它们是研究最多的领域之一。然而，需要报告更多的工作来分析这些行动的影响并探索该部门在国家或地区战略中的作用。本研究模拟了一家概念公司在国家层面的石油和天然气价值链，探讨其在哥伦比亚能源战略长期愿景中的作用。我们开发了 TIMES-O&G 模型，并根据哥伦比亚国家能源计划在三种情景下进行了测试。领先的油气公司表示，从短期和中期来看，增加新资源的可能性可能表明哥伦比亚碳氢化合物市场将多快失去自给自足，因为到2030年和2040年，天然气和原油的进口将分别超过国内产量哥伦比亚将失去碳氢化合物生产国的角色，从2040年起，其价值链将仅限于作为炼油原材料进口国，以满足国家燃料需求；前述情况意味着针对基本案例场景的升级和拐点场景，系统成本将增加 15% 和 18%。此外，考虑到炼油厂在其所代表的价值链中的重要性，炼油厂被认为是必须在短期和长期脱碳的主要部门。