Abstract

Maintenance-Renewal Works (MRWs) are among the most complicated planning operations of water companies and usually involve a group of experts. However, experts are often hesitant in their decision making as they often need to rely on unreliable quantitative operational data, which prompts doubts about the effectiveness of their decisions. This problem can be addressed by using linguistic (qualitative) values instead of imprecise numerical data. Hence, this study develops a qualitative-risk-based model to plan the MRW of six Iranian networks comprising pipes with unreliable operational data. The study also investigates the effectiveness of group decisions on planning pipe MRW. The results indicate that planning with imprecise numerical operational data can be improved by using a qualitative-risk-based model. Additionally, it is found that group decisions do not significantly change the pipe priorities, although they have a decisive effect on determining the pipe maintenance-renewal strategies. Furthermore, increasing the number of criteria is found to lead to more accurate results within the developed model, although increasing the number of decision-makers has no decisive effect on the results.

中文翻译：

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基于风险的定性模型，用于评估在运行数据不可靠的情况下规划水管道维护更新工程的群体决策

摘要

维护更新工程 (MRW) 是自来水公司最复杂的规划作业之一，通常需要一组专家参与。然而，专家在决策时常常犹豫不决，因为他们经常需要依赖不可靠的定量操作数据，这引发了人们对其决策有效性的怀疑。这个问题可以通过使用语言（定性）值而不是不精确的数值数据来解决。因此，本研究开发了一个基于风险的定性模型来规划六个伊朗网络的 MRW，该网络由运行数据不可靠的管道组成。该研究还调查了群体决策对规划管道 MRW 的有效性。结果表明，可以通过使用基于定性风险的模型来改进使用不精确的数值操作数据进行的规划。此外，研究发现，群体决策不会显着改变管道优先级，尽管它们对确定管道维护更新策略具有决定性影响。此外，发现增加标准数量可以在开发的模型中产生更准确的结果，尽管增加决策者的数量对结果没有决定性影响。