Purpose

Most research on tax evasion focused on microeconomic variables revolving around perceptions and decisions of individual taxpayers. However, a new wave of research is now investigating the role of macroeconomic variables in inducing tax evasion. This study adds to the limited studies in this new direction of research. Previous studies found that inflation, low gross domestic product (GDP) growth and gross fixed capital formation causes recession, increases unemployment, raise interest rates, hurts both domestic and foreign direct investments. This study examined the relationship between these variables and estimated tax evasion in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopts a correlation research design with 2,300 data points collected from 23 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, tax to GDP ratio, gross fixed capital formation per GDP and the GDP annual growth report from each country for the period 2011–2020 was retrieved. Generalised least square regression technique was employed to analyse the data due to the presence of heteroskedasticity in the model and random effect was utilized based on the Hausman test. To avoid misspecification and biased result; therefore, all relevant test was conducted including the multicollinearity test.

Findings

The results indicate that GDP annual growth and gross fixed capital formation have a significant negative impact on estimated tax evasion in Sub-Saharan Africa. The findings further indicate a negative but insignificant relationship between inflation and estimated tax evasion in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study concludes that both GDP annual growth rate and gross fixed capital formation negatively influence estimated tax evasion and the policy implications in the African continent were discussed.

Originality/value

The new findings on the effects of GDP annual growth, growth fixed capital formation and inflation on estimated tax evasion provide novel knowledge that is currently lacking in the current literature, specifically Sub-Saharan African continent.

中文翻译：

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一些宏观经济变量对估计逃税的影响：来自撒哈拉以南非洲的证据

目的

大多数关于逃税的研究都集中在围绕个人纳税人的看法和决策的微观经济变量上。然而，新一波研究正在调查宏观经济变量在诱导逃税方面的作用。这项研究补充了这一新研究方向的有限研究。此前的研究发现，通货膨胀、国内生产总值（GDP）增长和固定资本形成总额低会导致经济衰退，增加失业率，提高利率，损害国内外直接投资。本研究考察了这些变量与撒哈拉以南非洲地区逃税估计之间的关系。

设计/方法论/途径

该研究采用相关研究设计，收集了来自撒哈拉以南非洲23个国家的2,300个数据点。具体来说，检索了各国2011-2020年期间的税收占GDP的比率、占GDP的固定资本形成总额以及GDP年度增长报告。由于模型中存在异方差性，采用广义最小二乘回归技术对数据进行分析，并在Hausman检验的基础上利用随机效应。避免错误指定和有偏差的结果；因此，进行了所有相关检验，包括多重共线性检验。

发现

结果表明，GDP年增长率和固定资本形成总额对撒哈拉以南非洲地区的逃税估计有显着的负面影响。研究结果进一步表明，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的通货膨胀与估计逃税之间存在负相关但微不足道的关系。研究的结论是，国内生产总值年增长率和固定资本形成总额都会对逃税估计产生负面影响，并讨论了非洲大陆的政策影响。

原创性/价值

关于 GDP 年增长率、固定资本形成增长和通货膨胀对估计逃税的影响的新发现提供了当前文献（特别是撒哈拉以南非洲大陆）目前缺乏的新知识。