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A survey of interventions to actively conserve the frozen North
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-25 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03705-6
Albert van Wijngaarden , John C. Moore , Bjorn Alfthan , Tiina Kurvits , Lars Kullerud

The frozen elements of the high North are thawing as the region warms much faster than the global mean. The dangers of sea level rise due to melting glacier ice, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost, and alterations in the key high latitude physical systems spurred many authors, and more recently international agencies and supra-state actors, to investigate “emergency measures” that might help conserve the frozen North. However, the efficacy and feasibility of many of these ideas remains highly uncertain, and some might come with significant risks, or could be even outright dangerous to the ecosystems and people of the North. To date, no review has evaluated all suggested schemes. The objectives of this first phase literature survey (which can be found in a separate compendium (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10602506), are to consider all proposed interventions in a common evaluation space, and identify knowledge gaps in active conservation proposals. We found 61 interventions with a high latitude focus, across atmosphere, land, oceans, ice and industry domains. We grade them on a simple three-point evaluation system across 12 different categories. From this initial review we can identify which ideas scored low marks on most categories and are therefore likely not worthwhile pursuing; some groups of interventions, like traditional land-based mitigation efforts, score relatively highly while ocean-based and sea ice measures, score lower and have higher uncertainties overall. This review will provide the basis for a further in-depth expert assessment that will form phase two of the project over the next few years sponsored by University of the Arctic.



中文翻译:

积极保护冰冻北方的干预措施调查

随着该地区变暖速度比全球平均水平快得多,高北地区的冰冻部分正在融化。由于冰川融化导致海平面上升的危险、永久冻土融化导致温室气体浓度增加以及关键高纬度物理系统的变化促使许多作者以及最近的国际机构和超国家行为者调查“紧急措施” ”这可能有助于保护冰冻的北方。然而,其中许多想法的有效性和可行性仍然高度不确定,有些可能会带来重大风险,甚至可能对北方的生态系统和人民造成彻底的危险。迄今为止,还没有任何评论评估所有建议的方案。第一阶段文献调查的目标(可以在单独的纲要中找到(https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10602506))是在共同评估空间中考虑所有拟议的干预措施,并确定知识差距积极的保护提案。我们发现了 61 项以高纬度为重点的干预措施,涵盖大气、陆地、海洋、冰和工业领域。我们根据 12 个不同类别的简单三点评估系统对它们进行评分。从初步审查中,我们可以确定哪些干预措施想法在大多数类别上得分较低,因此可能不值得追求;某些干预措施组,如传统的陆基缓解措施,得分相对较高,而海洋和海冰措施得分较低,总体不确定性较高。将为进一步深入的专家评估提供基础,该评估将构成北极大学赞助的未来几年项目的第二阶段。

更新日期:2024-03-26
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