Nowadays, environmental problems have gradually become the focus of world attention. In recent years, heat waves in many parts of Europe have increased ozone concentrations, fuelling ozone pollution. Therefore, this paper investigates the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric column ozone concentrations in South-western Europe, future trend changes, influencing factors, and potential source regions based on remotely sensed monitoring data from the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) from 2011 to 2021. The results show that the areas of high tropospheric column ozone concentrations are mainly concentrated in the northwest, Poland, and southeast coastal areas. At the same time, the monthly variation curve of column ozone concentration is bimodal. Trend change analyses indicate an upward trend in future column ozone concentrations in the southeastern part of the study area. The potential for increases also exists in parts of Germany, France, and Poland, which will need to be monitored. Random forest model projections found a slight decrease in column ozone concentrations in 2022 and 2023 of about 1–4 DU compared to tropospheric column ozone concentrations in 2021. The health risk assessment found that the number of all-cause premature deaths due to exposure to ozone was the highest in Germany. During the summer, when ozone pollution is high, the potential source area in the southeastern part of the study area is located at the border of the three countries, and synergistic management is recommended. In exploring the correlation between the influencing factors and ozone, it was found that there is a significant difference between the long-time and short-time series. In addition, the pathway analysis shows that the population size, distribution density, and forested area in southwestern Europe may be more sensitive to the production of tropospheric ozone.

如今，环境问题逐渐成为世界关注的焦点。近年来，欧洲多地的热浪导致臭氧浓度升高，加剧了臭氧污染。因此，本文基于OMI（臭氧监测仪）2011—2021年遥感监测数据，探讨了西南部欧洲对流层臭氧柱浓度的时空分布、未来趋势变化、影响因素以及潜在源区。结果表明，对流层臭氧高浓度区域主要集中在西北地区、波兰和东南沿海地区。同时，柱臭氧浓度月变化曲线呈双峰。趋势变化分析表明研究区东南部未来柱状臭氧浓度呈上升趋势。德国、法国和波兰的部分地区也存在增长的潜力，需要对此进行监测。随机森林模型预测发现，与 2021 年对流层柱臭氧浓度相比，2022 年和 2023 年柱臭氧浓度略有下降约 1-4 DU。健康风险评估发现，由于接触臭氧而导致的全因过早死亡人数是德国最高的。夏季臭氧污染较高，研究区东南部潜在源区位于三国交界处，建议协同管理。在探究影响因素与臭氧的相关性时发现，长时序列和短时序列之间存在显着差异。此外，路径分析表明，欧洲西南部的人口规模、分布密度和森林面积可能对对流层臭氧的产生更为敏感。