We use 2015–2018 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions longitudinal data for four European countries (the UK, Germany, France, and Italy) and a dynamic trivariate panel data model to analyze the complex relationship between poverty, work intensity, and disability. We find evidence of genuine state dependence in the three processes and feedback effects from past poverty to work intensity in all countries and from past poverty to disability in the UK, Germany, and Italy. Disability is detrimental to poverty, despite the mitigating role played by disability cash benefits. The magnitude of this effect seems to be associated with the average expenditure on social protection benefits and its distribution across functions. We stress the importance of accounting for the extra costs of disability and the key role work intensity plays in the disability–poverty connection. Finally, adopting a joint estimation strategy appears crucial to consistently estimating the relationship between the three processes.

我们使用 2015-2018 年欧盟四个欧洲国家（英国、德国、法国和意大利）收入和生活条件统计纵向数据和动态三变量面板数据模型来分析贫困、工作强度和残疾之间的复杂关系。我们在这三个过程中发现了真正的国家依赖的证据，以及所有国家从过去的贫困到工作强度的反馈效应，以及在英国、德国和意大利从过去的贫困到残疾的反馈效应。尽管残疾现金福利发挥了缓解作用，但残疾仍对贫困产生不利影响。这种影响的大小似乎与社会保护福利的平均支出及其跨职能的分配有关。我们强调考虑残疾额外成本的重要性以及工作强度在残疾与贫困关系中发挥的关键作用。最后，采用联合估计策略对于一致估计三个过程之间的关系似乎至关重要。