Hydrological Ecosystem Services (HESs), as an important part of ecosystem services, are those services that depend on hydrological processes. HESs vulnerability assessment at the watershed scale is used to explore highly vulnerable areas for management and protection measures. This study aimed at developing a method for HESs vulnerability assessment and achieve a quantitative integrated index under future climate and land use change scenarios. We focused on three regulating HESs, including water flow regulation, erosion regulation, and local climate regulation (LC). An integrated model of Markov chain and automatic cells was used to predict land use changes. Future climate data were estimated using the Climate Change Toolkit (CCT). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed for HESs vulnerability assessment in the Taleghan Watershed in Iran. The model was calibrated by river discharge using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) and the Parallel Processing option. The results show that sub-watersheds with higher precipitation (PCP) and lower evapotranspiration (ET) are more efficient in water flow and local climate regulation. However, sub-watersheds with lower PCP and higher ET are more vulnerable to erosion. Changes in water flow regulation services and local climate regulation were more consistent with climate changes, and conversely, changes in erosion and sediment regulation services had a very high level of compliance with land use changes. The method applied in this study can easily be adapted to other regions to identify areas with more vulnerability and less resilience in improving the water and soil structure and function in the watershed.

中文翻译：

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未来气候和土地利用变化动态下水文生态系统服务脆弱性评估

水文生态系统服务（HES）是生态系统服务的重要组成部分，是依赖于水文过程的服务。 HES在流域尺度上进行脆弱性评估，用于探索高度脆弱地区的管理和保护措施。本研究旨在开发一种HES脆弱性评估方法，并实现未来气候和土地利用变化情景下的定量综合指数。我们重点关注三个调节性 HES，包括水流调节、侵蚀调节和当地气候调节 (LC)。使用马尔可夫链和自动单元的集成模型来预测土地利用变化。未来的气候数据是使用气候变化工具包（CCT）估算的。土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 模型是为伊朗塔勒甘流域的 HES 脆弱性评估而开发的。该模型使用顺序不确定性拟合 (SUFI-2) 和并行处理选项通过河流流量进行校准。结果表明，降水量（PCP）较高、蒸散量（ET）较低的子流域在水流和当地气候调节方面更有效。然而，PCP 较低和 ET 较高的子流域更容易受到侵蚀。水流调节服务和当地气候调节服务的变化与气候变化的一致性较高，相反，侵蚀和泥沙调节服务的变化与土地利用变化的符合程度非常高。本研究中应用的方法可以很容易地适用于其他地区，以确定在改善流域水土结构和功能方面更脆弱和恢复能力更弱的地区。