Conducting risk and early warning assessments of heavy metals (HMs) pollution in agricultural soils holds significant importance for pollution prevention and sustainable agricultural development. Early warning studies on heavy metal contamination of agricultural soils in oases in arid zones are rare in previous studies, therefore, this study carried out spatial and temporal simulation and early warning studies on the environmental capacity of agricultural soils in the Hexi Corridor based on field monitoring data and remote sensing technology and other methods. The results revealed that agricultural soils have been affected by human activities, leaving HMs at a moderate pollution level. The mean environmental capacity indices for Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, As and Pb showed that they all belonged to the medium-capacity state, and 7.01 % of the sampling points being overloaded and in the low capacity for As. Cr, Ni, Zn and As were found in the moderate and high capacity zones located in the study area's western part, and the spatial distribution was basically the same. HMs in the middle parts area were dominated by low to medium capacity status, which may be related to agricultural activities such as application of fertilizers and pesticides and sewage irrigation. Based on the soil dynamic capacity model, it was found that in the next 20 years, HMs showed a decrease of 70–80 %, and the soil environment dynamic capacity was smaller than both the static and existing capacity, and it showed a decreasing trend with the change of time, which indicated that the soil's capacity for pollutants in the study area would be reduced if no pollution control measures were taken. Risk warning results showed that the overall spatial distribution pattern of the probability of pollution in the study area during the next 10 and 20 years was lower in the west and the northern part of Wuwei City, and higher in the middle part. This study suggests constructing a management system of “pollution evaluation - source treatment - risk early warning” for heavy metal contaminated sites, formulating corresponding policies and early warning measures, strengthening the research and development of monitoring, remediation, and treatment technologies, and realizing the prevention and control of agricultural soil pollution and sustainable development in the study area.

中文翻译：

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河西走廊农田土壤重金属污染预警：时空分布及未来趋势

开展农业土壤重金属污染风险及预警评估对于污染防治和农业可持续发展具有重要意义。针对干旱区绿洲农业土壤重金属污染的预警研究在以往的研究中并不多见，因此，本研究基于实地监测对河西走廊农业土壤环境容量进行了时空模拟与预警研究。数据和遥感技术等方法。结果显示，农业土壤受到人类活动的影响，使重金属处于中度污染水平。 Cr、Ni、Cu、Zn、As、Pb平均环境容量指数均属于中等容量状态，7.01%的采样点处于超负荷状态，As处于低容量状态。研究区西部中、高容量区均发现Cr、Ni、Zn、As，空间分布基本一致。中部地区的HMs以中低容量状态为主，这可能与化肥农药的施用和污水灌溉等农业活动有关。基于土壤动态容量模型发现，未来20年，HMs呈减少70%~80%的趋势，土壤环境动态容量小于静态容量和现有容量，并呈下降趋势随着时间的变化，表明如果不采取污染控制措施，研究区土壤的污染物容量将会降低。风险预警结果显示，研究区未来10年和20年污染概率总体空间分布格局为武威市西部和北部较低，中部较高。研究建议构建重金属污染场地“污染评价-源头治理-风险预警”的管理体系，制定相应的政策和预警措施，加强监测、修复和治理技术的研发，实现重金属污染场地“污染评价-源头治理-风险预警”的管理体系。研究区农业土壤污染防治与可持续发展.