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Tropical cyclones in global high-resolution simulations using the IPSL model
Climate Dynamics ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07138-w
Stella Bourdin , Sébastien Fromang , Arnaud Caubel , Josefine Ghattas , Yann Meurdesoif , Thomas Dubos

Despite many years of extensive research, the evolution of Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity in our changing climate remains uncertain. This is partly because the answer to that question relies primarily on climate simulations with horizontal resolutions of a few tens of kilometers. Such simulations have only recently become accessible for most modeling centers, including the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL). Using recent numerical developments in the IPSL model, we perform a series of historical atmospheric-only simulations that follow the HighResMIP protocol. We assess the impact of increasing the resolution from \({\sim }\, 200\) to 25 km on TC activity. In agreement with previous work, we find a systematic improvement of TC activity with increasing resolution with respect to the observations. However, a clear signature of TC frequencies convergence with resolution is still lacking. Cyclogenesis geographical distributions also improve at the scale of individual basins. This is particularly true of the North Atlantic, where the agreement with the observed distribution is impressive at 25 km. In agreement with the observations, TC activity correlates with the large-scale environment and ENSO in that basin. By contrast, TC frequencies remain too small in the Western North Pacific at 25 km, where significant biases of humidity and vorticity are found compared to the reanalysis. Despite the few minor weaknesses we identified, our results demonstrate that the IPSL model is a suitable tool for studying TCs on climate time scales. This work thus opens the way for further studies contributing to our understanding of TC climatology.



中文翻译:

使用 IPSL 模型模拟全球高分辨率热带气旋

尽管进行了多年的广泛研究,热带气旋 (TC) 活动在气候变化中的演变仍然不确定。部分原因是这个问题的答案主要依赖于水平分辨率为几十公里的气候模拟。直到最近,大多数建模中心才可以进行此类模拟,包括皮埃尔-西蒙拉普拉斯研究所 (IPSL)。利用 IPSL 模型中最新的数值发展,我们执行了一系列遵循 HighResMIP 协议的历史仅大气模拟。我们评估将分辨率从\({\sim }\, 200\)增加到25 km 对 TC 活动的影响。与之前的工作一致,我们发现 TC 活动有了系统性的改善,观测分辨率不断提高。然而,TC 频率收敛与分辨率的清晰特征仍然缺乏。气旋发生的地理分布也在各个流域的尺度上有所改善。对于北大西洋来说尤其如此,其与观测到的分布在 25 公里处的吻合度令人印象深刻。与观测结果一致,TC 活动与该盆地的大尺度环境和 ENSO 相关。相比之下,西北太平洋 25 km 处的 TC 频率仍然太小,与再分析相比,发现湿度和涡度存在显着偏差。尽管我们发现了一些小缺陷,但我们的结果表明 IPSL 模型是研究气候时间尺度上的 TC 的合适工具。因此,这项工作为进一步研究开辟了道路,有助于我们了解热带气旋气候学。

更新日期:2024-03-27
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