Understanding the predictability of marine heatwaves (MHWs) and identifying the sources of their forecast errors are essential for enhancing their forecast accuracy. In the summer of 2018, a powerful MHW struck the Yellow Sea, resulting in significant economic losses for the sea cucumber culture industry in China's coastal areas. However, the ability to predict the evolution of this MHW remains uncertain. In this study, several forecast experiments were conducted based on a deterministic ocean forecast model to address this issue. The results demonstrate that this MHW can be effectively predicted with a lead time of less than 3 days. Specifically, the mean MHW forecast accuracy is 0.66 and the mean absence/presence accuracy is 0.79 at a 3-day lead time. Beyond a 3-day lead time, the MHW forecast accuracy steadily decreases, which is primarily due to the overpredicted “False Alarms” during its growth and decay phases. The overpredicted “False Alarms” are largely attributed to uncertainties in predicting wind and air temperature related to two typhoons passing through the Yellow Sea. Additionally, anomalous ocean circulation induced by atmospheric forcing uncertainties may also trigger MHW forecast errors through advection. Future efforts involving parameter optimization, air-sea coupling, ensemble forecasts and integration with artificial intelligence-based weather forecasts are suggested to improve the prediction of MHWs. Our findings may provide implications for stakeholders in preparation for any future occurrences of MHWs in the Yellow Sea.

中文翻译：

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基于确定性预报模型评估2018年夏季黄海海洋热浪的可预测性

了解海洋热浪 (MHW) 的可预测性并确定其预报误差的来源对于提高预报准确性至关重要。 2018年夏季，一股强大的重水灾袭击黄海，给我国沿海海参养殖业造成重大经济损失。然而，预测这种 MHW 演变的能力仍然不确定。在本研究中，基于确定性海洋预测模型进行了几次预测实验来解决这个问题。结果表明，该 MHW 可以在不到 3 天的时间内得到有效预测。具体而言，在 3 天的提前时间内，平均 MHW 预测准确度为 0.66，平均缺席/在场准确度为 0.79。超过 3 天的准备时间，MHW 的预测准确性稳步下降，这主要是由于在其增长和衰退阶段过度预测的“误报”。过度预测的“误报”很大程度上归因于与两次穿越黄海的台风相关的风力和气温预测的不确定性。此外，大气强迫不确定性引起的海洋环流异常也可能通过平流引发 MHW 预报误差。建议未来开展参数优化、海气耦合、集合预报以及与基于人工智能的天气预报集成等工作，以改进 MHW 的预测。我们的研究结果可能会为利益相关者为黄海未来发生的MHW事件做好准备提供参考。