A primary goal of arms embargoes is to mitigate the humanitarian effects of conflict within target states by restricting access to foreign weaponry. Within this study, we investigate how embargoed governments adapt their violent strategies in response to restrictions on arms imports. We theorize that arms embargoes that undermine governments’ military strength may inadvertently increase their reliance on civilian repression as an alternative approach to countering domestic threats. However, we expect that targeted governments’ ability to acquire weapons from non-participating or non-compliant suppliers will have a mitigating effect. A global examination of the effects of arms embargoes between 1989 and 2004 supports our argument and also suggests that both the levels of arms received and who supplies them matter. Our findings suggest that policymakers who employ arms embargoes should consider increased violence against civilians as a potential unintended consequence and closely monitor target governments’ use of repression.

中文翻译：

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禁运、武器和暴力：武器禁运对瞄准平民的有条件影响

武器禁运的主要目标是通过限制获取外国武器来减轻目标国家内冲突的人道主义影响。在这项研究中，我们调查了被禁运的政府如何调整其暴力策略以应对武器进口限制。我们的理论是，削弱政府军事实力的武器禁运可能会无意中增加政府对镇压平民的依赖，以此作为应对国内威胁的替代方法。然而，我们预计目标政府从不参与或不合规的供应商处获取武器的能力将产生缓解作用。对 1989 年至 2004 年武器禁运影响的全球考察支持了我们的论点，同时也表明接收武器的数量和供应武器的人都很重要。我们的研究结果表明，实施武器禁运的政策制定者应将针对平民的暴力行为增加视为潜在的意外后果，并密切监视目标政府的镇压行为。