Russia's invasion of Ukraine has threatened global grain supplies as it reduces production and exports while increasing trade costs. While the overall share of Africa's trade with Ukraine and Russia is small, the concentration of imports in products such as wheat, other grains, and fertilizer is critical to food security. This paper investigates the long-term impacts of the conflict on grain imports and prices in Africa. We use a long-run general equilibrium trade model to study three scenarios that may evolve as a consequence of the conflict: (1) a heavily reduced Ukrainian production of wheat and other grains; (2) rising trade costs with Ukraine and Russia due to disrupted trade routes in the Black Sea and the sanctions against trading with Russia; and (3) an outright ban on Russian grain export. The model simulations show that the conflict severely affects grain imports, raising local prices for wheat and other grains, with especially strong effects in high import-dependent countries. That creates risks for food security in some African countries.

中文翻译：

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乌克兰冲突对非洲粮食进口和价格的长期影响

俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵威胁了全球粮食供应，因为它减少了产量和出口，同时增加了贸易成本。虽然非洲与乌克兰和俄罗斯的贸易总体份额很小，但进口集中在小麦、其他谷物和化肥等产品上，这对粮食安全至关重要。本文调查了冲突对非洲粮食进口和价格的长期影响。我们使用长期一般均衡贸易模型来研究可能因冲突而演变的三种情景：（1）乌克兰小麦和其他谷物产量大幅减少； （二）黑海贸易航线中断以及对俄贸易制裁导致与乌克兰、俄罗斯的贸易成本上升； (3) 彻底禁止俄罗斯粮食出口。模型模拟显示，冲突严重影响粮食进口，导致小麦和其他谷物的当地价格上涨，尤其是在高度依赖进口的国家。这给一些非洲国家的粮食安全带来了风险。