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Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions
Nature ( IF 64.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 , DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07264-9
Wei-Ping Chan , Jonathan Lenoir , Guan-Shuo Mai , Hung-Chi Kuo , I-Ching Chen , Sheng-Feng Shen

Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change1,2. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms3,4. However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions5. Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified.



中文翻译:

全球山区的气候速度和物种追踪

山脉含有高度集中的特有物种,是面临人为气候变化的低地物种不可或缺的避难所1,2。预测生物多样性重新分布取决于评估物种是否能够随着气候变暖而追踪等温线的变化3,4。然而,山区气象站的稀缺阻碍了对等温线沿海拔梯度变化速度的全球分析5。在这里,我们通过绘制全球山区的温度递减率 (LRT) 来解决这个问题,既使用卫星数据 (SLRT),又使用热力学定律来解释水蒸气 6(即湿绝热递减率) (MALRT))。通过将 1971 年至 2020 年的地表变暖速率除以 SLRT 或 MALRT,我们提供了垂直等温线位移速度图。我们确定了 17 个具有极高垂直等温线位移速度的山区(SLRT 每年大于 11.67 m;MALRT 每年大于 8.25 m),主要位于干燥地区,但也存在于递减率较浅的潮湿地区;例如,苏门答腊岛北部、巴西高地和南部非洲。通过将这些速度与物种范围变化的速度联系起来,我们报告了在气候速度较低的山区进行近距离跟踪的实例。然而,许多物种落后了,这表明即使我们设法遏制气候变化轨迹,范围变化动态也将持续存在。我们的发现对于制定全球保护战略至关重要,特别是在我们已确定的 17 个高速山区。

更新日期:2024-03-28
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