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Concurrent drought and heatwave events over the Asian monsoon region: insights from a statistically downscaling CMIP6 dataset
Environmental Research Letters ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-05 , DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2cad
Lianlian Xu , Wei Yu , Song Yang , Tuantuan Zhang

Concurrent drought and heatwave (CONDH) can cause tremendous ramifications on socioeconomic activities and human health, and the drought-heatwave (D-H) dependence was revealed to be one of the major factors of the CONDH across most global land regions. However, insufficient attention has been paid on the CONDH over the Asian monsoon region, and the impact of the D-H dependence is even more rarely considered. Based on a statistically downscaling the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset, we explore the spatial distributions of the intensity, frequency, and duration of the CONDH. In addition, the qualitative impacts of D-H dependence on the intensity, frequency, and duration of the CONDH have been further investigated via comparing these three metrics of the CONDH with those of heatwave. In the period of 1961–2014, the spatial pattern of intensity and duration of the CONDH bear a large resemblance to that of heatwave, with more severe CONDH (heatwave) occurring over South Asia, and relatively long-lasting CONDH (heatwave) occupying over the low latitudes of the Asian monsoon region. The frequency of the CONDH presents large discrepancies with that of heatwave. East Asia (South Asia) is hit by more frequent CONDH (heatwave) than other sub-regions. The D-H dependence is conducive to the intensity, frequency, and duration of the CONDH, especially over the East Asia, Eastern Siberia, and Western Siberia. In the period of 2015–2100, the intensity and duration of the CONDH and heatwave maintain the historical spatial structures. The frequency of the CONDH and heatwave change remarkably relative to 1961–2014, with largest value over eastern central Asia. The D-H dependence is conducive to the three features of the CONDH, and such positive contributions would weaken in response to global warming, especially under higher emission scenario.

中文翻译:

亚洲季风区同时发生的干旱和热浪事件:来自统计降尺度 CMIP6 数据集的见解

干旱与热浪同时发生(CONDH)会对社会经济活动和人类健康造成巨大影响,而干旱与热浪(DH)的依赖性被认为是全球大多数陆地区域发生干旱热浪(CONDH)的主要因素之一。然而,人们对亚洲季风区CONDH的关注还不够,更很少考虑DH依赖性的影响。基于耦合模型比对项目第 6 阶段 (CMIP6) 数据集的统计降尺度,我们探索了 CONDH 的强度、频率和持续时间的空间分布。此外,通过将 CONDH 的这三个指标与热浪的指标进行比较,进一步研究了 DH 依赖性对 CONDH 的强度、频率和持续时间的定性影响。 1961—2014年期间,CONDH的强度和持续时间的空间格局与热浪有很大的相似性,其中南亚地区发生了较为严重的CONDH(热浪),而持续时间相对较长的CONDH(热浪)则占据了亚热带地区。亚洲季风区低纬度地区。 CONDH的频率与热浪的频率存在较大差异。东亚(南亚)比其他次区域更频繁地遭受 CONDH(热浪)袭击。 DH 依赖性有利于 CONDH 的强度、频率和持续时间,特别是在东亚、东西伯利亚和西西伯利亚。 2015-2100年期间,CONDH和热浪的强度和持续时间维持了历史空间结构。 CONDH和热浪的频率相对1961-2014年变化显着,其中中亚东部频率最大。 DH依赖有利于CONDH的三个特征,但这种积极贡献会因应对全球变暖而减弱,特别是在较高排放情景下。
更新日期:2024-03-05
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