Increasing bioenergy production is a significant component of European efforts to mitigate climate change, but has contested potential for reducing emissions. We use an integrated land system model to explore the effects of large-scale bioenergy production within the European Union on carbon balances. We find that increased bioenergy crop production is likely to cause substantial deforestation and a commensurate loss of associated carbon stocks largely due to displacement of food production from other areas. Deforestation would occur either within the EU if European forests were not protected, or in other parts of the world arising from indirect land use change if European forests were protected. The net carbon benefit of bioenergy production is largely negative, or uncertain, even under the most optimistic levels of fossil fuel replacement, and will not offset initial carbon losses over the coming 50 yr. The growth of intensive agriculture required to satisfy the demand for bioenergy and food will have negative impacts on crucial ecosystem services. Overall, we identify substantial disadvantages to increasing bioenergy production relative to freeing land for natural succession. At best, large-scale bioenergy production is likely to be irrelevant to time-sensitive climate targets.

中文翻译：

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欧洲的生物能源不太可能为气候变化目标做出及时的贡献

增加生物能源生产是欧洲减缓气候变化努力的重要组成部分，但在减少排放方面的潜力却存在争议。我们使用综合土地系统模型来探索欧盟范围内大规模生物能源生产对碳平衡的影响。我们发现，生物能源作物产量的增加可能会导致大量森林砍伐和相关碳储量的相应损失，这主要是由于其他地区粮食生产的转移。如果欧洲森林不受保护，森林砍伐将会在欧盟内部发生；如果欧洲森林受到保护，森林砍伐也会因间接土地利用变化而在世界其他地区发生。即使在最乐观的化石燃料替代水平下，生物能源生产的净碳效益在很大程度上也是负的或不确定的，并且不会抵消未来 50 年的初始碳损失。满足生物能源和粮食需求所需的集约化农业的增长将对重要的生态系统服务产生负面影响。总体而言，我们发现相对于释放土地进行自然演替而言，增加生物能源生产存在重大劣势。充其量，大规模生物能源生产可能与时间敏感的气候目标无关。