In California (CA), the wildland-urban interface (WUI) faces escalating challenges due to surging population and real estate development. This study evaluates communities along CA’s WUI that have witnessed substantial population growth from 2010 to 2021, utilizing demographic data and the 2020 WUI boundaries by the University of Wisconsin-Madison SILVIS Lab. Employing the Mann-Kendall test, we analyze yearly population trends for each census tract along the CA WUI and assess their significance. House ownership, affordability, and wildfire risk are examined as potential drivers of this demographic shift. Our findings indicate that 12.7% of CA’s total population now resides in census tracts with significant population increases over the past decade, labeled as ‘high-growth tracts.’ The Bay Area and Southern California, encompassing 76% of all high-growth tracts in CA, witnessed the most substantial population increase along the WUI. Notably, Riverside County stands out with 29.2% of its residents (approximately 717,000 residents) located in high-growth tracts, exemplifying a significant population surge within CA’s WUI. Our analysis identifies a significant relationship between population increase in the WUI, house ownership, and affordability, where lower-priced homes come at the expense of heightened wildfire risk. However, the impact of house affordability on population growth within the WUI varies by region, playing a more prominent role in explaining population proportions in Southern California’s WUI, while in the universally low-affordability Bay Area, other motivations may drive residents to live within the WUI. Given the rapid growth and insufficient consideration of wildfire risk in the WUI, policymakers must take prompt action, ensuring adequate infrastructure and resources as more individuals relocate to areas with heightened wildfire risk.

中文翻译：

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人口普查区的年度人口数据显示，现在有越来越多的人生活在美国加利福尼亚州的火灾高发区

在加利福尼亚州 (CA)，由于人口激增和房地产开发，荒地与城市界面 (WUI) 面临着不断升级的挑战。本研究利用威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校 SILVIS 实验室的人口数据和 2020 年 WUI 边界，对 2010 年至 2021 年期间人口大幅增长的加州 WUI 沿线社区进行了评估。我们采用曼-肯德尔检验，分析了 CA WUI 沿线每个人口普查区的年度人口趋势，并评估其重要性。房屋所有权、负担能力和野火风险被视为这种人口变化的潜在驱动因素。我们的研究结果表明，目前加州总人口的 12.7% 居住在过去十年人口显着增长的人口普查区域，被标记为“高增长区域”。湾区和南加州占加州所有高增长地区的 76%，是 WUI 沿线人口增长最快的地区。值得注意的是，河滨县脱颖而出，其 29.2% 的居民（约 717,000 名居民）位于高增长地区，这体现了加利福尼亚州 WUI 内人口的显着激增。我们的分析发现，WUI 的人口增长、房屋拥有率和负担能力之间存在显着关系，其中价格较低的房屋是以山火风险增加为代价的。然而，住房负担能力对 WUI 内人口增长的影响因地区而异，在解释南加州 WUI 的人口比例方面发挥着更为突出的作用，而在普遍负担能力较低的湾区，其他动机可能会促使居民居住在吴伊。鉴于 WUI 的快速增长和对野火风险的考虑不足，政策制定者必须迅速采取行动，确保随着越来越多的人搬迁到野火风险较高的地区，有足够的基础设施和资源。