Health impact assessments have estimated substantial health co-benefits of climate change mitigation strategies due to reductions in air pollution in the US; however, few studies have considered children’s health impacts and related equity implications. We estimated the potential health co-benefits to children related to improved air quality associated with various emissions cap and investment scenarios for the transportation sector in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic US proposed under the Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI). We modeled changes in ambient fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide between 2022 and 2032 associated with on-road transportation sector emissions under nine hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions cap and investment scenarios proposed under TCI using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.2. We estimated potential health co-benefits for adverse birth and pediatric respiratory and neurodevelopmental outcomes using an expanded version of the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, known as BenMAPR. We also examined impacts on pediatric asthma exacerbations across racial/ethnic groups. We found that health benefits to children increased as the CO₂ emission caps became more ambitious. The combination of the highest emissions cap (25%) and the investment scenario which prioritized public transit improvement (Diversified strategy) conferred the greatest children’s health benefits for the majority of health outcomes considered, resulting in approximately $82 million per year in economic savings. Assessment of the distribution of avoided pediatric asthma exacerbations showed benefits across all racial and ethnic groups, with a slightly greater reduction in cases for non-White populations. Decarbonization policies in the transportation sector in the Eastern US have the potential to provide important air quality and pediatric health co-benefits.

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美国东部交通运输部门拟议的脱碳政策对儿童健康的影响

健康影响评估估计，由于美国空气污染的减少，气候变化缓解策略对健康产生了巨大的协同效益；然而，很少有研究考虑到儿童的健康影响和相关的公平影响。我们估计了与交通和气候倡议 (TCI) 下提议的美国东北部和大西洋中部交通部门的各种排放上限和投资方案相关的空气质量改善对儿童的潜在健康协同效益。我们使用社区多尺度空气质量 (CMAQ) 模型，对 2022 年至 2032 年间与道路交通部门排放相关的环境细颗粒物和二氧化氮的变化进行了建模，在九个假设的二氧化碳 (CO ₂ ) 排放上限和 TCI 下提出的投资情景下5.2 版。我们使用环境效益绘图和分析计划的扩展版本（称为 BenMAPR）估计了不良分娩以及儿科呼吸和神经发育结果的潜在健康协同效益。我们还研究了不同种族/族裔群体对儿童哮喘恶化的影响。我们发现，随着 CO ₂排放上限变得更加严格，对儿童的健康益处也随之增加。最高排放上限 (25%) 与优先改善公共交通的投资方案（多元化战略）相结合，为大多数考虑的健康结果带来了最大的儿童健康效益，每年节省约 8,200 万美元的经济成本。对避免的儿童哮喘急性发作的分布评估显示，所有种族和族裔群体都受益，非白人群体的病例减少幅度略大。美国东部交通运输部门的脱碳政策有可能带来重要的空气质量和儿科健康的共同效益。