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Global evidence of rapid flash drought recovery by extreme precipitation
Environmental Research Letters ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-19 , DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad300c
Shanti Shwarup Mahto , Vimal Mishra

Flash drought affects agricultural activities and water availability. However, the rate of flash drought development and termination and their controlling mechanisms remain mostly unexplored. Using climate reanalysis (ERA5) datasets, we examine the flash drought development and recovery rates in seventeen climate regions across the globe during the 1981–2020 period. In most global climate regions, flash drought recovery (25.2 percentile/pentad) is faster than its development rate (17.2 percentile/pentad). The tropical and sub-tropical humid areas, particularly eastern North America, northern South America, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Islands groups, are the hotspots of rapid flash drought development and faster recovery rates. In most climate regions, flash drought development and recovery rates have considerably increased during the recent two decades. Pluvial events (heavy-to-extreme precipitation) associated with increased soil moisture and decreased atmospheric aridity vapor pressure deficit are the primary driver of the rapid flash drought recovery. Globally, 10 of 17 regions showed the dominance of extreme precipitation in flash drought recovery, primarily due to an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation. A fraction of flash droughts terminated by extreme precipitation has increased significantly across the most regions during 1981–2020. Considering the increase in flash drought frequency, development rate, and rapid termination, the compound risk of flash droughts followed by extreme precipitation and flooding has enhanced. The abrupt transition from flash drought to wet conditions makes drought and flood management more challenging, with consequences for agriculture and water resources.

中文翻译:

全球证据表明极端降水使突发干旱迅速恢复

突发干旱影响农业活动和水资源供应。然而,突发干旱的发展和结束速度及其控制机制仍未得到探索。使用气候再分析 (ERA5) 数据集,我们研究了 1981 年至 2020 年期间全球 17 个气候区域的突发干旱发展和恢复率。在大多数全球气候区域,突发干旱的恢复(25.2%/pentad)快于其发展速度(17.2%/pentad)。热带和亚热带湿润地区,特别是北美东部、南美洲北部、南亚、东南亚和群岛,是突发干旱发展迅速、恢复速度较快的热点地区。在大多数气候地区,近二十年来,突发干旱的发展和恢复率显着增加。与土壤湿度增加和大气干旱蒸气压不足减少相关的雨事件(强到极端降水)是快速干旱恢复的主要驱动力。在全球范围内,17个地区中有10个地区在突发干旱恢复中表现出极端降水的主导作用,这主要是由于极端降水频率的增加。 1981 年至 2020 年期间,大多数地区因极端降水而终止的部分突发干旱显着增加。考虑到突发干旱的频率、发展速度和快速结束的增加,突发干旱继之以极端降水和洪水的复合风险有所增强。从突发干旱到潮湿条件的突然转变使干旱和洪水管理更具挑战性,并对农业和水资源造成影响。
更新日期:2024-03-19
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