This study was aimed to analyze the changes and predict the future land use in the Parangtritis Sand Dunes, located in Bantul Regency, Yogyakarta Special Region, Indonesia. Parangtritis Sand Dunes face the threat of damage due to various human factors such as settlements, tourism, agriculture, plantations, etc. The Cellular Automata method, coupled with the Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) plug-in, was employed to assess the dynamics of land cover/land use and make projections for the future. The analysis revealed significant changes in several land cover classes between 2019 and 2021, while others remained relatively stable. From 2019 to 2021, the change in area amounted to 5.6 hectares, while from 2021 to 2031 the change was only slight, amounting to 0.7 hectares. So it can be concluded that the change in the area of sand dunes in the future, namely in 2031, has not changed much, only increased by 0.7 Ha. So that more effort is needed to curb the core zone intended for the preservation of the Parangtritis sand dunes. Further investigation into the underlying causes of these shifts could provide valuable insights for effective land management and conservation efforts.

中文翻译：

---

预测Parangtritis沙丘未来土地利用和土地覆盖变化：使用QGIS MOLUSCE进行时空分析

本研究旨在分析位于印度尼西亚日惹特区班图尔县的帕朗特里蒂斯沙丘的变化并预测未来的土地利用。帕朗特里蒂斯沙丘面临着聚居、旅游、农业、种植园等多种人为因素造成的破坏威胁。采用元胞自动机方法，结合土地利用变化评估模块（MOLUSCE）插件进行评估土地覆盖/土地利用的动态并对未来做出预测。分析显示，2019 年至 2021 年间，多个土地覆盖类别发生了显着变化，而其他土地覆盖类别则保持相对稳定。 2019年至2021年，面积变化达5.6公顷，而2021年至2031年变化很小，为0.7公顷。由此可见，未来，即2031年，沙丘面积的变化并没有太大变化，仅增加了0.7公顷。因此，需要付出更多努力来遏制旨在保护帕朗特里蒂斯沙丘的核心区。进一步调查这些变化的根本原因可以为有效的土地管理和保护工作提供宝贵的见解。