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International reserves, currency depreciation and public debt: New evidence of buffer effects in Africa
Emerging Markets Review ( IF 4.359 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101130
Issiaka Coulibaly , Blaise Gnimassoun , Hamza Mighri , Jamel Saadaoui

The paper adds to the literature on the issue of public debt in African economies, by investigating the role foreign exchange reserves play in improving the level of indebtedness and as buffer of the negative effect of exchange rate depreciation while considering the exchange rate policy. Our results show a direct link between the level of foreign currency reserves and that of external debt in Africa. Particularly, we demonstrate that higher foreign currency reserves tend to decrease the public debt stock to GDP. This effect is even more significant when countries go through high exchange rate depreciation episodes (10% or higher). This impact, however, is not homogenous among country groups, as only countries with a floating exchange regime tend to benefit from this buffer effect compared to anchored regimes. In a time where most African economies face severe exchange rate depreciation episodes following the U.S. monetary tightening policy, central bankers and policy makers need to consider a plethora of policy issues including interventions in the FX market to mitigate depreciations and maintain a sustainable public debt stock.

中文翻译:

国际储备、货币贬值和公共债务:非洲缓冲效应的新证据

本文对非洲经济体公共债务问题的文献进行了补充,在考虑汇率政策的同时,研究了外汇储备在改善债务水平和缓冲汇率贬值负面影响方面的作用。我们的研究结果显示,非洲的外汇储备水平与外债水平之间存在直接联系。特别是,我们证明较高的外汇储备往往会降低公共债务存量占 GDP 的比例。当国家经历高汇率贬值(10% 或更高)时,这种影响更为显着。然而,这种影响在不同国家组之间并不相同,因为与锚定汇率制度相比,只有实行浮动汇率制度的国家往往会从这种缓冲效应中受益。在美国货币紧缩政策之后,大多数非洲经济体都面临严重的汇率贬值,央行行长和政策制定者需要考虑大量政策问题,包括干预外汇市场以减轻贬值并维持可持续的公共债务存量。
更新日期:2024-03-23
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