The paired approach can improve the efficiency of closely spaced parallel runways. Calculating the probability and frequency of horizontal overlap is an indispensable step when evaluating the horizontal collision risk of the paired approach. As the generation of horizontal overlap probability is closely related to horizontal position error, we propose a calculation method of horizontal overlap probability based on position error from the perspective of pilot operation. First, according to the principle of flight mechanics, the attitude adjustment model is established for the horizontal direction of the approach process, and the pilot’s operation model for various position errors is based on the concept of the stochastic process. This attitude adjustment model can replicates the process of the pilot operating the steering column to change the aircraft’s attitude. When combined with the pilot’s operation model, it is possible to simulate the position errors generated during the approach process. Building on this, the horizontal overlapping conditions of two aircraft are analyzed to simulate the horizontal overlap process in the paired approach. The duration and instances of overlap counted and the ratio between these results and the total running time give the overlap probability and frequency. Multiple simulations in MATLAB reveal that higher pilot operating accuracy shortens the time for the aircraft to align with the course, whereas lower accuracy leads to unstable horizontal position errors. Furthermore, the horizontal overlap in paired approaches primarily occurs at the beginning of the procedure, and enhancing the pilot’s operating accuracy does not significantly affect the probability and frequency of horizontal overlap.

中文翻译：

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配对法下横向碰撞风险分析与模拟

配对方法可以提高紧密间隔的平行跑道的效率。在评估成对进近的水平碰撞风险时，计算水平重叠的概率和频率是必不可少的步骤。由于水平重叠概率的产生与水平位置误差密切相关，我们从导频操作的角度提出了一种基于位置误差的水平重叠概率计算方法。首先，根据飞行力学原理，建立了进近过程水平方向的姿态调整模型，并基于随机过程的概念，建立了飞行员针对各种位置误差的操作模型。该姿态调整模型可以复制飞行员操作转向柱改变飞机姿态的过程。结合飞行员的操作模型，可以模拟进场过程中产生的位置误差。在此基础上，分析两架飞机的水平重叠情况，模拟配对进近中的水平重叠过程。计算的重叠的持续时间和实例以及这些结果与总运行时间之间的比率给出了重叠概率和频率。 MATLAB 中的多次仿真表明，较高的飞行员操作精度会缩短飞机对准航向的时间，而较低的精度会导致不稳定的水平位置误差。此外，成对进近中的水平重叠主要发生在程序开始时，提高飞行员的操作精度并不会显着影响水平重叠的概率和频率。