The study of mortality is an ever-active field of research, and new methods or combinations of methods are constantly being developed. In the actuarial domain, the study of phenomena disrupting mortality and leading to excess mortality, as in the case of COVID-19, is of great interest. Therefore, it is relevant to investigate the extent to which an epidemiological model can be integrated into an actuarial approach in the context of mortality. The aim of this project is to establish a method for the study of excess mortality due to an epidemic and to quantify these effects in the context of the insurance world to anticipate certain possible financial instabilities. We consider a case study caused by SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium during the year 2020. We propose an approach that develops an epidemiological model simulating excess mortality, and we incorporate this model into a classical approach to pricing life insurance products.

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COVID-19 和超额死亡率：精算研究

死亡率研究是一个不断活跃的研究领域，新的方法或方法组合不断被开发出来。在精算领域，对破坏死亡率并导致死亡率过高的现象（如 COVID-19 的情况）的研究非常有趣。因此，有必要研究流行病学模型在多大程度上可以纳入死亡率背景下的精算方法。该项目的目的是建立一种研究流行病造成的超额死亡率的方法，并在保险界量化这些影响，以预测某些可能的金融不稳定。我们考虑了 2020 年比利时 SARS-CoV-2 引起的案例研究。我们提出了一种开发模拟超额死亡率的流行病学模型的方法，并将该模型纳入人寿保险产品定价的经典方法中。