Abstract

We investigate whether the cost pass-through in the European retail gasoline market is the same regardless of whether cost changes are driven by exchange rate fluctuations or driven by fluctuations in the dollar spot price of gasoline. We find that the two cost pass-through rates are not the same: we find that the latter exceeds the former. The effect is quantitatively small, but robust and statistically significant. This pattern is not due to a lower persistence of exchange rate changes, refinery supply contracts, or economic fluctuations. The lower variability of exchange rates relative to that of oil prices explains a portion of the response gap. A possible explanation for the remaining gap is that consumers draw a direct link between the crude oil and retail gasoline prices, which affects their price expectations and their search intensity, and thus the retailers’ pass-through. Because pass-through is sometimes used to assess market competitiveness and contributes to the forecast of the Consumer Price Index, it is important to recognize that the source of variation in the underlying costs may have an effect on the assessment of market conduct and inflation.

中文翻译：

---

价格转嫁对成本增加来源的依赖：来自欧洲汽油市场的证据

摘要

我们调查了欧洲零售汽油市场的成本转嫁是否相同，无论成本变化是由汇率波动驱动还是由汽油美元现货价格波动驱动。我们发现两者的成本转嫁率并不相同：我们发现后者超过了前者。从数量上看，这种影响很小，但很稳健，并且具有统计显着性。这种模式并不是由于汇率变化、炼油厂供应合同或经济波动的持续性较低。汇率相对于石油价格的波动性较低可以解释部分反应差距。对剩余差距的一个可能解释是，消费者在原油和零售汽油价格之间建立了直接联系，这影响了他们的价格预期和搜索强度，从而影响了零售商的传递。由于传递有时用于评估市场竞争力并有助于消费者价格指数的预测，因此重要的是要认识到基本成本的变化来源可能会对市场行为和通货膨胀的评估产生影响。