Abstract

The ice sheet model developed by L.G. Shulyakovskii for calculating ice formation dates on water bodies is presented. A possibility of applying this model for predicting ice formation dates based on the information system of the Hydrometcenter of Russia is shown. The model is implemented in the Automated Operational Data Processing System for the large navigable rivers of northeastern Siberia. Forecast sites at which the morphometric parameters of the model were obtained from long-term observations are distinguished on these rivers. The analysis of the state of the information databases used to automate calculations revealed a possibility to increase the lead time of the forecasts of the ice phenomena onset up to 10 days. The verification of the floating ice formation date forecasts produced using the model in operational mode over 2014–2022 is performed.

中文翻译：

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现代信息环境下应用冰盖模型预测结冰日期的经验——以西伯利亚东北部河流为例

摘要

介绍了 LG Shulyakovskii 开发的用于计算水体结冰日期的冰盖模型。展示了应用该模型基于俄罗斯水文气象中心信息系统预测冰形成日期的可能性。该模型在西伯利亚东北部大型通航河流的自动化运营数据处理系统中实施。通过长期观测获得模型形态参数的预报点在这些河流上是有区别的。对用于自动计算的信息数据库状态的分析表明，有可能将冰现象发生的预报提前时间延长至 10 天。对使用该模型在 2014-2022 年运行模式下生成的浮冰形成日期预测进行了验证。