Constraining the magma supply to a subvolcanic reservoir is crucial to characterizing unrest and evaluating the potential for a forthcoming eruption. With the advent of GPS, tiltmeters, and satellite interferometry, it has been possible to infer changes in the supply rate of magma to shallow reservoirs over time scales of as much as decades. While these methods have impacted our ability to characterize volcanic unrest, they only probe magmatic activity over short time scales. Here, we constrain changes in magma supply rate at Sakurajima volcano (Kyushu, Japan) over the past five centuries. The combination of thermo-mechanical modeling, documented eruption history, and textural analyses of pumices allows us to tightly constrain the long-term rate of magma supply to the subvolcanic chamber through time. Specifically, we find that magma supply rate has increased by roughly an order of magnitude over the past 500 years and that the bubble content in the magma chamber has increased over time, explaining the changes in eruption volume between the Bunmei (ca. A.D. 1470), An-ei (ca. A.D. 1780), and Taisho (A.D. 1914) eruptions.

中文翻译：

---

过去 500 年来樱岛火山（日本）浅层岩浆室的岩浆供应量增加

限制对地下火山储层的岩浆供应对于表征动荡和评估即将喷发的可能性至关重要。随着全球定位系统、倾斜仪和卫星干涉测量技术的出现，人们已经可以推断出浅层储层岩浆供应速度在长达数十年的时间尺度上的变化。虽然这些方法影响了我们描述火山动荡的能力，但它们只能探测短时间范围内的岩浆活动。在这里，我们限制了过去五个世纪以来樱岛火山（日本九州）岩浆供应率的变化。热机械模型、记录的喷发历史和浮石的结构分析相结合，使我们能够严格限制岩浆随时间的推移向地下火山室供应的长期速率。具体来说，我们发现在过去的 500 年中，岩浆供应率大约增加了一个数量级，并且岩浆室内的气泡含量随着时间的推移而增加，这解释了崩美（约公元 1470 年）之间喷发量的变化、安永（约公元 1780 年）和大正（公元 1914 年）喷发。