The Arctic is notable as a region where the greatest rate of increase in precipitation associated with global warming is anticipated. The Arctic precipitation simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models showed a strong increasing trend since the 1980s. We found that the forcing factor of the trend is a combination of the continued strengthening of greenhouse gas forcing and the leveling off of aerosol forcing dominated in earlier periods. From an energetic perspective, we found that the increased atmospheric radiative cooling and reduced sensible heat transport from lower latitudes contributed equally to the recent increase in Arctic precipitation. The combination of these two energetic factors suggests a doubling of the Arctic amplification factor for precipitation relative to that for temperature. Future Arctic precipitation will change in proportion to the temperature change, and the fractional contributions of the energetic factors will remain stable across various scenarios.

中文翻译：

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影响北极降水历史和未来趋势的因素

北极地区是预计与全球变暖相关的降水量增幅最大的地区。耦合模式比对项目第六期模式模拟的北极降水自20世纪80年代以来呈现出强劲的增加趋势。我们发现，这一趋势的强迫因素是温室气体强迫的持续增强和早期主导的气溶胶强迫的趋于平稳的结合。从能量角度来看，我们发现大气辐射冷却的增加和低纬度地区显热传输的减少同样导致了最近北极降水的增加。这两个能量因素的结合表明北极降水放大系数相对于温度放大系数加倍。未来北极降水量将随温度变化成比例变化，能量因子的贡献分数在各种情景下将保持稳定。