This paper develops a new approach to analyze the relationship between the government spending multiplier and monetary policy. We embed measures of monetary policy activism into a nonlinear SVAR model. Our model allows the central bank to adjust its monetary policy regime in response to the economic conditions that arise after government spending shocks. We find that, regardless of the monetary policy regime at the time of a spending shock, the central bank adjusts its regime quickly and responds actively towards inflation only a few quarters after the shock hits the economy. This rapid response of monetary policy leaves medium-run multipliers ultimately unaffected by whether the initial regime was active or passive. For both initial regimes, our five-year multiplier estimates lie between 1.2 and 1.5. An apparent exception to this result is the zero lower bound period between 2008Q4 and 2015Q4-during which monetary policy kept nominal interest rates at zero. Our multiplier point estimates for that era are consistently larger than unity.

中文翻译：

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主动和被动货币政策之间的政府支出：不变性结果

本文提出了一种新方法来分析政府支出乘数与货币政策之间的关系。我们将货币政策积极性的衡量标准嵌入到非线性 SVAR 模型中。我们的模型允许央行调整其货币政策制度，以应对政府支出冲击后出现的经济状况。我们发现，无论支出冲击时的货币政策制度如何，央行在经济受到冲击后仅几个季度就迅速调整其制度并对通胀做出积极反应。货币政策的快速反应使得中期乘数最终不受初始制度是主动还是被动的影响。对于这两种初始制度，我们的五年乘数估计介于 1.2 和 1.5 之间。这一结果的一个明显例外是 2008 年第四季度至 2015 年第四季度的零下限时期，在此期间货币政策将名义利率保持为零。我们对那个时代的乘数点估计始终大于统一值。